In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.

Taiwan, Singapore, and Korea's currencies might appreciate versus the USD, driven by capital repatriation from domestic private investors away from the US. This thesis is less pertinent to India, Indonesia, and the Philippines…

Special Report

This week, we look at the sustainability of the HKD peg as the next whale to move markets, given what is happening to tariffs. After careful analysis, our bias is that it is here to stay. With the DXY dipping below 100, we are likely…

Special Report

In this week’s report, we release an update to our long-term REER valuation model and expected future returns for major currencies.

Special Report

In this Special Report, we update our thinking on the Hong Kong SAR dollar peg, with implications for domestic asset markets.

The HK dollar is under an assault from rising US interest rates and a weak economy. To defend the exchange rate peg, the HKMA will continue to tighten liquidity, which will boost HK interest rates above those in the US across the…

Special Report

Executive Summary Liquidity Will Shrink Further In Hong Kong  The HKD is facing its most critical test in several decades. While the peg is likely to survive (Feature Chart), the economic costs for Hong Kong SAR will be far…

Executive Summary Liquidity Will Shrink Further In Hong Kong  The HKD is facing its most critical test in several decades. While the peg is likely to survive (Feature Chart), the economic costs for Hong Kong SAR will be far…

Dear clients, The Foreign Exchange Strategy will take a summer break next week. We will resume our publication on September 4th. Best regards, Chester Ntonifor, Vice President Foreign Exchange Strategy Feature The economy of Hong…