Assuming last month's weak employment report is not the start of a trend, the market is still discounting too low a probability that the Fed will lift rates this year. This means the Treasury curve should bear-flatten in the coming…

Weak employment will push out the timing of rate hikes to something closer to BCA's view of a September increase. It is also supportive of our asset allocation call two weeks ago to overweight Treasuries.

Both hawks and doves at the Federal Reserve, including Chair Yellen, have stepped up efforts to condition financial markets for a rate hike as early as June.

A June rate hike is a real possibility, but the Fed still needs evidence that growth is rebounding toward 2% in order to follow through. Whether the next rate hike occurs in June or later this year, a persistent hawkish shift from…

There is a considerable dichotomy between the EM equity universe and EM corporate credit markets. EM credit markets remain mispriced. EM currencies are at risk of renewed depreciation. This will push sovereign and corporate spreads,…

Within an overweight allocation to Euro Area corporates versus U.S. corporates, favor single-B rated Euro Area High-Yield and Euro Area Investment Grade sectors that offer higher duration-adjusted spreads.

Special Report

Preliminary results from the Philippine elections suggest that policy uncertainty and discontinuity will challenge the reform trajectory of a country with one of the best macroeconomic backdrops in the emerging market universe.

We continue to view the rally in equities and high-yield corporate bonds since February as a high-risk affair.

Special Report

Colombia's structural growth outlook is superior to many other developing economies. In the near-term, however, Colombia's economy is set to weaken materially. Upgrade Colombian equities and sovereign credit to neutral versus EM…

Financial conditions will continue to ease during the next few months, and the Fed will use its June statement to prepare the markets for a rate hike in September.