Highlights The tactical environment is dynamic, chaotic and unpredictable. ...Chaos also brings opportunity. We must recognize and exploit opportunities when chance presents them. Look for recurring patterns to exploit.1 Feature…
Dear Client, We are pleased to present our 2017 Outlook for Grains & Softs, covering corn, wheat, soybeans and rice in the grain markets, and cotton and sugar. This is our last regular Weekly Report for the year. You should have…
Highlights By now, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Russia have figured out that if each cuts 500k b/d of production, the revenue enhancement for both will be well worth the foregone volumes. Even without additional cuts from other…
Highlights The resilience of EM industrial commodity demand, which is helping to lift inflation and inflation expectations in the U.S., will be tested over the next few months, as markets gear up for a possible oil-production deal…
India's agricultural output per capita has not increased at all. Thus, food and headline inflation will remain structurally high, which will negatively impact savings and investment dynamics in the years ahead. With respect to…
Fed policy - and, importantly, policy expectations' effect on the broad trade-weighted USD (TWI) - will dominate price evolution over the short term, as markets puzzle out if and when a rate hike is coming this year.
If the Fed convinces markets it is on track to lift rates this year and a couple of times next year, we expect a 10% appreciation of the USD over the next 12 months. This would be extremely bearish for commodities.
A Fed rate hike by December could erode the slowly evolving fundamentals favoring base metals.
Commodity speculation provides liquidity to hedgers, allows price discovery, and offers access to an asset class that typically produces returns that are not correlated with stock or bond returns.
Increasing uncertainty over the Brexit vote will keep the Fed from raising its overnight policy rate at this week's FOMC meeting, but it may not keep the USD from rallying in the event of a decisive win for Brexit advocates on June…