The long-term fiscal outlook is certainly bleak, but the near-term risks are low. President Trump's tweets aside, the U.S. has an independent central bank that has been able to keep inflation expectations well anchored.…
Highlights Investors are worrying too much about the things that caused the global financial crisis, and not enough about those that could cause the next downturn. Despite the recent patch of soft data, the U.S. housing market is in…
Highlights Overstated geopolitical risks in 2017 are giving way to understated risks in 2018; The reshuffle of China's government raises policy headwinds for global growth and EM assets; U.S. politics will be roiled by a leftward…
Highlights Chinese monetary conditions have tightened on the margin, but have remained fairly stimulative compared with previous years, likely the key reason why overall growth has remained reasonably robust. Listed Chinese firms…
Highlights Beijing's continued focus on reducing excess industrial capacity in the lead-up to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party will keep iron ore and steel markets buoyant for the balance of the year. The trajectory…