Government
Highlights Chinese equities have rallied enthusiastically since the COVID-19 outbreak and are now exposed to underlying political and geopolitical risks. Xi Jinping’s intention is to push forward reform and restructuring, creating a significant risk of…
Highlights Policy Responses: Australian policymakers have responded forcefully to the COVID-19 pandemic through massive fiscal stimulus and unprecedented monetary easing measures. The dovish pivot of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could last for…
Dear Client, I am writing as the US Capitol goes under lockdown to tell you about a new development at BCA Research. Since you are a subscriber of Geopolitical Strategy, we wanted you to be the first to know. This month we are launching a new sister…
Highlights Global growth will accelerate over the course of 2021 as COVID-19 vaccines are distributed and economic confidence improves in response. Longer-term global bond yields see some upward pressure as growth picks up, but global real yields will stay…
Highlights With a vaccine already rolling out in the UK and soon in the US, investors have reason to be optimistic about next year. Government bond yields are rising, cyclical equities are outperforming defensives, international stocks hinting at…
Highlights Biden’s chances of winning the US election are rising, but it is still unsettled and could bring negative surprises to financial markets. The fiscal cliff will not subside immediately as the Senate Republicans have been vindicated for their…
Highlights The US saves too much to achieve full employment but not enough to close the current account deficit. According to the “Swan diagram,” a weaker dollar would move the US economy closer to “external” and “internal” balance. Structural forces…
Chart Of The WeekInvestor Consensus Is Bearish On Dollar
Investor Consensus Is Bearish On Dollar…
Highlights Both public opinion polls and betting markets suggest that Joe Biden will become President, with the Democrats gaining control of the Senate and retaining the House of Representatives. Such a “blue wave” would have mixed effects on the value of…
Highlights Latin America faces a deep economic contraction and a new surge of social unrest and political unrest. However, the risks are increasingly priced into financial markets – especially if global monetary and fiscal stimulus continue. A looming…