Government

Highlights We cannot predict how China will manage Evergrande precisely but we have a high conviction that it will do whatever it takes to prevent contagion across the property sector. However, China’s stimulus tools are losing their effectiveness over…

Highlights Germany’s election on September 26 is more of an opportunity than a risk for global investors. Coalition formation will prolong uncertainty but the key takeaway is that early or aggressive fiscal tightening is off the table for Germany … and…

Highlights An Iran crisis is imminent. We still think a US-Iran détente is possible but our conviction is lower until Biden makes a successful show of force. Oil prices will be volatile. Fiscal drag is a risk to the cyclical global macro view. But…

Highlights Regulatory changes affecting Chinese platform companies are structural – rather than transitory – in nature. These companies might become quasi-SOEs and could be used by the government to achieve its national and geopolitical objectives.…

Highlights China’s credit tightening may have surpassed maximum strength. Monetary policy will remain accommodative and fiscal policy will become more supportive in the rest of the year. However, overall regulatory oversight is still restrictive,…

Highlights Commodity markets will face growing supply challenges over the next decade as the US and China prepare for war, if only to deter war. Chinese President Xi Jinping's push for greater self-reliance at home and supply chain security abroad is…

Dear Client, There will be no US Investment Strategy next week as we take our summer vacation. We will return on Monday, September 6th. We wish everyone a happy and safe conclusion to the summer. Best regards, Doug Peta Highlights Economy – COVID-19…

Highlights China’s new plan for “common prosperity” is a long-term strategic plan to bulk up the middle class that will strengthen China – if it is implemented successfully. The record on implementing reforms is mixed. Large budget deficits to provide…