Bullish equity sentiment may persist in the second quarter on the Fed’s pause, but tight monetary policy, financial instability, elevated recession odds, extreme US polarization and policy uncertainty, and still-high geopolitical…

High rates have hurt real estate and, now, banks. The next shoes to drop: Loan growth, profits, and employment. Stay defensive. Recession is probable, but risk assets have not priced it in.

Colombian assets are inexpensive, but they are cheap for a reason. The economy is entering a growth recession while inflation will remain sticky and above target. Further, President Gustavo Petro’s policies will lead to lower…

Stay defensive in the second quarter. We can see a narrow window for risky assets to outperform but we recommend investors stay wary amid high rates, supply risks, extreme uncertainty, peak polarization, and structurally rising…

Special Report

In Section I, we discuss the implications of the banking crisis that emerged in March. We do not expect what happened in the US or Europe to morph into a full-blown meltdown of the financial system, but this month’s events will…

US financial instability reinforces our bearish investment outlook by weighing on economic growth and corporate earnings while also increasing US policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk.

The growth and inflation profiles of the three central European countries are set to diverge. The outlook for Polish and Hungarian Bonds are not attractive anymore. Book profits on them. Instead, initiate a new trade: pay Polish /…

Special Report

Generative AI is a major technological breakthrough that holds tremendous economic and investment promise and will have sweeping effects on wide swaths of the economy. We are bullish on generative AI as a long-term investment theme.…

Investors in Europe and the American West are already starting to think about the implications of the 2024 election, given that sticky inflation and tighter monetary policy keep the risk of recession elevated.

Special Report

The first legislative meeting of Xi Jinping’s third term suggests that Chinese policy is continuous and consistent with the previous ten years, which is negative for long-term productivity.