The performance of financial markets continued to improve in June, with most of the major financial assets we track generating positive abnormal returns. The US equity rally – which had been narrowly concentrated among…
The June NBS PMI data revealed that growth conditions have deteriorated on the margin. The new orders and exports for overall manufacturing as well as for services have not improved and remain below 50. In addition, the import…
In a recently published report, our China Investment Strategy team revisited the issue of a liquidity trap in China. A liquidity trap is a condition that occurs when lower borrowing costs are unable to boost credit demand and…
Assuming yesterday’s policy rate hike is a sign that Turkey is finally veering towards orthodox economic policies; should investors rush in?
China’s economic data releases for May fell below consensus estimates. The 7.2% y/y contraction in property investment in the first five months of the year was worse than the expected 6.7% decline. The deceleration in…
The Chilean economy is entering a recession. After two years of tightening fiscal and monetary policies, real economic growth is beginning to contract and inflation is tumbling. Our Emerging Markets strategists expect the…
China’s money and credit update for May continues a string of disappointing Chinese data releases. The CNY 1.56 trillion increase in total social financing fell below expectations of a CNY 1.90 trillion rise. Similarly, the…
Our colleagues in BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy (CES) service expect the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to announce a new round of policy stimulus to re-boot the economy, in an effort to escape a prolonged liquidity…
The debt ceiling game’s endpoint will avoid default only if it implies economic pain. For the Republicans, the best strategy is not to lift the debt ceiling unless the Democrats cut spending a lot, or unless the economy starts to…