Several economic releases out of China disappointed in April. Retail sales decelerated from 3.1% y/y to 2.3% y/y and fixed asset investment growth slowed from 4.5% YTD y/y to 4.2% YTD y/y. Both were expected to accelerate.…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Indian Prime Minister Modi is on track to be reelected for his third term, with the latest polls in April averaging 385 seats for the National Democratic Alliance,…
Chinese aggregate financing, a broad measure of credit, declined on a YTD basis, from CNY 12.9tr to CNY 12.7tr in April, disappointing expectations that it would grow to CNY 13.9tr. Moreover, new loan growth missed expectations (…
Chinese investable stocks have rallied on a combination of investors’ hopes for stimulus, revival in the global manufacturing cycle and cheap valuations. The MSCI China index and the Hang Seng have both gained close to 15%…
Investors should prepare for economic data to weaken even as policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk skyrocket ahead of the US election.
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, US and Euro Area growth will likely converge in the next 12 months. Fiscal policy differences were the most visible headwind to Eurozone growth last…
The IMF’s latest fiscal monitor report highlighted the dangers that rising sovereign debt alongside rising deficits pose to advanced economies. The United States, in particular, is at risk. The IMF projects that fiscal…