Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

Executive Summary The Fed is in a tough spot. On the one hand, rising long-dated inflation expectations will incentivize it to tighten more quickly. On the other hand, the flat yield curve and poor risky asset performance point to a heightened risk of recession if it tightens too aggressively…

Executive Summary On a tactical (3-month) horizon, the inflationary impulse from soaring energy and food prices combined with the choke on growth from sanctions will weigh on both the global economy and the global stock market. As such, bond yields could nudge higher, the global stock market…

Executive Summary Will The War Stall The Expected Downturn In Inflation This Year? Will The War Stall The Expected Downturn In Inflation This Year…

Highlights Chart 1A Tough Balancing Act For The Fed A Tough Balancing Act For The Fed…

Executive Summary No Contagion Yet No Contagion Yet…

Executive Summary We look at the Ukraine crisis in the broader context of shocks, what we can learn from them, and how we can incorporate them into our strategy for investment, and life in general. Our high-conviction view is that the Ukraine crisis will be net deflationary, because the…

Executive Summary Upgrade Global Duration Exposure To Neutral Upgrade Global Duration Exposure To Neutral…

Executive Summary Wars Don’t Usually Affect Markets For Long Monthly Portfolio Update: Keep Calm And Stay Invested…

Executive Summary The heightened uncertainty of the current situation means it makes sense to keep portfolio duration close to benchmark. The recent market turmoil means that a 50 bps rate hike is off the table for the March FOMC meeting, but the Fed will proceed with a 25 bps rate hike this…

Executive Summary The Excess Return Of Corporate Bonds Is Driven By Corporate Profits The Excess Return Of Corporate Bonds Is Driven By Corporate Profits…