Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

In this Strategy Insight, we take a comparative look at two of the largest spread product sectors in Europe – Italian government bonds and investment grade corporates. We make the case for favoring Italy over investment grade in the event of a downturn in European economic sentiment.

Despite the economy being on the verge of a recession, the South African Reserve Bank will not ease policy meaningfully. Doing so will accentuate the currency depreciation, which, in turn, will push up bond yields – an outcome the central bank would like to prevent.

MacroQuant upgraded equities to overweight in February on a tactical short-term (1-to-3 month) horizon, but it continues to see downside risks to stocks on a medium-term (12-month) horizon. Consistent with the model’s relatively somber medium-term growth outlook, it sees more downside for bond yields on a 12-month horizon than on a 1-to-3 month horizon.

The first in a series of Strategy Insights where we present a checklist for extending duration in each major government bond market. This first entry focuses on the US.

We rank the US spread sectors in terms of risk versus reward.

Comments on yesterday’s CPI report and yield moves.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2024.

Our Central Bank Monitors support European central bankers’ decision to hold rates steady. Find out what it means for European fixed-income portfolio allocation.

In this Insight, we share our thoughts on yesterday’s FOMC meeting and the Fed’s likely next moves, with implications for US bond strategy.