Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

German Bunds have cheapened considerably, and the ECB is about to start cutting rates. Does this combination guarantee immediate profits from buying these bonds?

In this report, we review our trade recommendations based on incoming data in the last month.

An update to our views on UK rates and currency following today’s Bank of England meeting.

In this week’s report, we defend four out-of-consensus claims. Claim #1: Underlying inflation in the US is not reaccelerating. Claim #2: The US labor market is set to weaken abruptly. Claim #3: The S&P 500 will drop to 3700 in 2025. Claim #4: Japan is not in danger of a currency crisis.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2024.

Some thoughts on this morning’s employment report and recent trends in US economic data.

Updated views on US Treasury yields and the dollar following today’s FOMC meeting.

Our latest views on the recent increase in Treasury yields and some key things to watch at next week’s FOMC meeting.

The UK labor market remains far too tight to expect wage growth to slow to levels consistent with the Bank of England inflation target. A true recession with rising unemployment is needed to finally slay the UK inflation beast. 2024 rate cuts are off the table, with the central bank having to keep monetary policy tighter for longer than markets expect and the UK economy now rebounding. We recommend downgrading UK gilts to underweight in global bond portfolios, while also looking for opportunities to buy the British pound on pullbacks versus the euro, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona.

The disinflation process is over in Poland and Hungary. Only the Czech Republic will see its core inflation meet its central bank target this year. The reason is much tighter labor market dynamics in the first two. Investors should continue to short a basket of CE3 currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar.