Gov Local Authorities

Egypt’s underlying inflation pressures are much higher than the headline CPI numbers imply. Real interest rates have plunged. As such, domestic bond yields have stayed high for a reason. Steer clear.

In this report, we explore the Canadian provincial bond market by developing a model to analyze its main drivers and understand the impact of a potential trade war between Canada and the US.

This is the time of the year when strategists are busy sending out their annual outlooks. Here on the Global Investment Strategy team, we decided to go one step further. Rather than pontificating about what could happen in 2025, we decided to harness the power of the multiverse to tell you what did happen (in at least one highly representative timeline).

Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Tuesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets.

And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2025. We will be back in the first week of January with our MacroQuant Model Update.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2024.

Meager credit growth and shrinking real wages will keep Thai inflation very low in the coming months. The currency will get support from an improving current account surplus. Fixed-income investors should upgrade Thailand from neutral to overweight within EM domestic bond portfolios.

Despite very low inflation, Bank Indonesia raised its policy rates last month to support the currency. The strategy did not work before and will not work now. Stay short the rupiah.

We maintain our view that China’s economic growth in the coming months will remain lackluster. Beijing's recent measures to provide additional financing may help to bridge the gap in government spending in the rest of 2023 and into 2024, but the impact on growth will be very limited.