The TWD’s surge reflects a regime shift in global capital flows that supports EM Asia government bonds. Alongside other Asian currencies, the TWD has rallied sharply against the USD since late last week. While the first wave of…
Paradoxically, raging optimism on the US economy is making a reacceleration in growth less likely in 2025. The reaction of the bond market has made the Fed rethink its cutting campaign. Markets are also constraining Trump’s agenda.…
This is the time of the year when strategists are busy sending out their annual outlooks. Here on the Global Investment Strategy team, we decided to go one step further. Rather than pontificating about what could happen in 2025, we…
The market got excited by the 50 bps Fed cut and China stimulus. But these are a recognition that economies are slowing significantly. Stocks often rally after the first Fed cut, before falling sharply. Investors should stay…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, onshore bonds are vulnerable to an investor sentiment reversal. Chinese 10-year government bond yields will likely trend lower to below 2% over the next 12…
The global economy is wobbling precariously between slowing growth and reaccelerating inflation. This is unlikely to end well. Stay cautious, and hedge against both recession and inflation.
Despite the economy being on the verge of a recession, the South African Reserve Bank will not ease policy meaningfully. Doing so will accentuate the currency depreciation, which, in turn, will push up bond yields – an outcome the…
We maintain our view that China’s economic growth in the coming months will remain lackluster. Beijing's recent measures to provide additional financing may help to bridge the gap in government spending in the rest of 2023 and into…
High interest rates will eventually cause growth to slow. Signs of stress are already starting to show. Stay cautiously positioned.
Pent-up demand for services is keeping the global economy going, but we still expect recession over the next 12 months. Investors should keep a cautious portfolio stance.