The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.
Germany’s problems are well known: Demographics, Chinese competition, underinvestment, energy dependence, and constrained fiscal policy. Our European Investment Strategy colleagues believe this bad news is priced in…
Yesterday, the ECB solidified its recent dovish tilt in response to weaker growth and decreasing inflationary pressures. It is now set to cut rates 25bps each meeting. How low will the ECB deposit rate ultimately go and what does…
Japanese core machinery orders decreased by 1.9% in August and dropped 3.4% year-over-year, missing expectations for modest growth. This decline reversed July’s improvement, when machinery orders grew at an 8.7% annual pace…
Economic expectations for the both Germany and the Eurozone ticked up in October and surprised positively for the first time since they collapsed this summer. The assessment of current conditions however worsened, going from -84.…
German factory orders contracted by a larger-than-anticipated 5.8% m/m (3.9% y/y) in August, from a 3.9% expansion (4.6% y/y). Domestically, Germany is constitutionally bound to maintain a balanced budget. The emergency…
France’s and Spain’s preliminary September CPI readings declined on a month-on-month basis, clocking in at 1.5% and 1.7% y/y respectively, and undershooting consensus expectations. Germany’s and Italy’s…
German equities have outperformed their Euro Area peers on a year-to-date basis, with the gap widening since May. The MSCI Germany Index returned nearly 4.5 percentage points more than the MSCI Eurozone index over the latter…
Volkswagen’s CEO has been making the point that the market for European carmakers has been deteriorating. Earlier last week, he went on to make a rather pointed reference at Chinese EV manufacturers. He was quoted…
The US suffers from enough imbalances to produce a mild recession. Unfortunately, such a recession could lead to a significant bear market in stocks, just as it did during the very mild 2001 recession.