A key takeaway from the New Hampshire primary was its elevated turnout, the highest since 2008. If the coming states confirm this trend, it will suggest that the Democrats are highly mobilized. Another important inference is…
Highlights The coronavirus is likely to cut global growth in half (from 3.3% to 1.7%) during the first quarter of 2020. Investors should brace for a slew of profit warnings over the coming weeks from companies with significant…
Last Friday, BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service estimates that Biden is still the Democratic front runner. Traditionally Iowa delivers a polling boost to the victor, but this year the first-comer effect is largely moot…
Highlights Trump's odds are still only around 55%. Biden remains the frontrunner in the Democratic primary election, albeit a weak one. Sanders brings forward the risk to this view. Evidence does not suggest that Trump would beat…
Throughout last year, we maintained that former Vice President Joe Biden was the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, albeit with very low conviction. The risk to equities is back. The Democratic Party faces a last-ditch…
Highlights China’s economic rebound in Q1 will be delayed due to the coronavirus, which will have a larger negative hit than SARS. New stimulus measures will assist a rebound in demand later this year. Europe remains a…
Highlights The liquidity-driven rally will soon be followed by an acceleration in global growth. The economic recovery will bump up expectations of long-term profit growth. The dollar has downside, but the euro will not benefit much…