Yesterday, BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service analyzed the results from Super Tuesday and its implications for the market and the presidential election. Biden would certainly re-regulate the economy, reversing the…
So far this primary season, the centrists have led the share of votes in the Democratic primaries. Originally, they did face a problem: A plethora of candidates divided the centrist vote, which allowed Senator Bernie Sanders…
Feature “Bayesian: …statistical methods that assign probabilities or distributions to events…based on experience or best guesses before experimentation and data collection and that apply Bayes' theorem to revise…
Highlights We spent last week meeting with clients in South Africa, who maintained their equanimity despite the spread of the coronavirus: Maybe it was because there were not yet any reported cases close to home, but investors…
Highlights It is too soon to bottom feed with fears of a global pandemic and “socialist” boom in the United States. China’s government will do “whatever it takes” to stimulate the economy – but…
Highlights Expect more volatility in the near-term. The roughly 45% odds of a total US policy reversal in the November election are higher than the market expects. A “Gray Swan” event in the election would be a tie in the…
Highlights Analyses on Asian semis, Argentina and Russia are available on pages 7, 12 and 14, respectively. The most likely trajectory for Chinese growth will be as follows: the initial plunge in business activity will be…
Highlights Duration: Bond yields will stay low until the daily number of new COVID-19 cases falls to zero, at which point a sell-off is likely. We therefore recommend maintaining below-benchmark portfolio duration on a 6-12 month…
Highlights Provided that the coronavirus outbreak is contained, global growth should accelerate over the course of 2020. Stocks usually rise when the economy is strengthening. But could this time be different? We explore five…