Highlights At 50% Trump’s reelection odds are too high, flagging a risk to equity markets of policy discontinuity. The virus, unemployment, and wages will weigh on him over the year. Trump’s polling is firm because the…
Highlights Global stimulus efforts are sufficient thus far, but more will need to be done, especially by Europe and emerging markets. Hiccups will not be well-received by financial markets. The net public wealth of countries helps put…
Highlights Our baseline view foresees a U-shaped recovery, as economies slowly relax lockdown measures. There are significant risks to this forecast, however. On the upside, a vaccine or effective treatment could hasten the reopening…
Highlights Over the past 24 hours the White House has taken several steps indicating that President Trump is adopting the “war president” posture in the run-up to the US election. The intensity of the US-China rivalry can…
Yesterday, BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service provided investors with an update on North Korea. As we are going to press we have received no official information concerning Kim Jong Un’s status, but the situation…
Highlights Kim Jong Un’s sickness or death is a matter of speculation and it is best to remain skeptical for now. If Kim dies or is incapacitated, it is a serious concern for North Korean and hence regional stability – and…
BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service concluded that Mitch McConnell's recent clash with states could induce some market volatility, but is ultimately a bluff. As deficits rise to astronomical sums, and economies…
Highlights The collapse in oil prices supercharges the geopolitical risks stemming from the global pandemic and recession. Low oil prices should discourage petro-states from waging war, but Iran may be an important exception. Russian…