Executive Summary Biden And Democrats Arrest Fall In Public Opinion US policy is essential to the global macro, policy, and geopolitical outlook in the fourth quarter. Our three key views for 2022 are still in place: the…
Italy’s right-wing coalition led by Giorgia Meloni of the far-right Brothers of Italy party –which also includes the League and Forza Italia – secured 44% of the vote in Sunday’s general election. Italian…
BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service concludes that investors should favor the US dollar and the euro over the Chinese renminbi and Taiwanese dollar. Many investors speculate that China’s…
Executive Summary The US inflation surprise increases the odds of both congressional gridlock and recession, which increases uncertainty over US leadership past 2024 and reduces the US’s ability to lower tensions with China and…
Executive Summary Inflation Surprise Reinforces Gridlock And Fiscal Drag A US recession is increasingly likely as the Fed will have to hike rates more aggressively in the short run to contain inflation. Recession would…
BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service’s subjective odds of a US-Iran deal are 40%. They believe that the risk of failure is being underrated. The 2015 deal occurred in a context of Iranian strategic…
Executive Summary US Military Constraint: Strait Of Hormuz A US-Iran deal would make for a notable improvement in the geopolitical backdrop during an otherwise gloomy year. It would remove the risk of a major new oil shock…
Dear Client, We will not be publishing the Commodity & Energy Strategy next week, as I will be participating in a panel discussion with Dr. Bassam Fattouh, Director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), which will focus…
Dear Clients, Next week we will attend the BCA Investment Conference in New York. Therefore we will not publish our regular report. We will resume regular publication in the week of September 12. We apologize in advance for any…