According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the Democratic Party is favored to win the 2024 election as long as it is not discredited by a major shock. But recession odds are not low. The US economy has…
Investors should prepare for an equity market pullback this fall, prefer Treasuries over stocks, and US defensives over cyclicals. A pullback could also morph into another bear market given that monetary policy is tight, policy…
The chief question of the 2024 election is whether US anti-establishment or populist politics is a viable electoral strategy, according to BCA’s US Political Strategy. That will have domestic and global effects not only in…
Investors are wondering about the risk of a US government shutdown as the September 30 deadline draws near. Would a shutdown be a significant negative catalyst for the stock market? While there is a high risk of a government…
The Chinese government today announced that it is suspending the reporting of urban youth unemployment rate. This rate reached 21.3% in June after climbing since December. While there is an element of seasonality to the data…
On Monday, Asia Pacific equity markets closed in the red due to the news that China’s largest real estate developer, Country Garden, is suspending the trading of some of its bonds. This recent episode is a continuation of…