Geopolitics
Just as we declared that geopolitical risk has peaked for the year – in yesterday’s Alpha report – President Trump has declared the ceasefire with Iran over after repeated violations via strikes against three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. That is the life of an investment strategist. But the underlying dynamics continue to play out as we’ve described.
The risk of a “super El Niño” represents a meaningful threat to agricultural markets. Wheat, cocoa, and palm oil appear particularly vulnerable to El Niño-related supply disruptions.
A rise in food prices could also generate political — and potentially geopolitical — reverberations across frontier and emerging markets, where food prices are far more relevant than in developed economies.
We have long argued, on a case-by-case basis, that countries willing to play the superpowers against each other win in a multipolar world. The logic is intuitive, and in this report, we measure it systematically.
