Geopolitics
Trade data from small open economies act as a bellwether for global growth developments. In August, Korean exports expanded by 11.4% y/y in USD and 5.7% y/y in KRW terms, marking their eleventh and eighth consecutive month of expansion, respectively.…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, former President Trump still has a path to come back to power, despite his disastrous performance in the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris on September 10. A cascade of shifting opinion…
Despite the disastrous performance by former President Trump in the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, there are still paths for him to come back to power. The economy and global instability could flare up anytime between now and election day, while quirks in the Electoral College ensure that the election will be close. The race is still competitive and policy uncertainty and volatility will be elevated.
Chinese export growth in USD terms accelerated from 7.0% y/y to a larger-than-expected 8.7% in August. China’s exports to its major trading partners (US, EU and ASEAN) were all growing in August on a year-on-year basis, though at a decelerating pace in the US…
According to BCA Research’s Private Markets & Alternatives service, the Sports Franchise market presents a compelling opportunity for Private Equity due to its strong growth potential, evolving business models, and monopolistic properties. Sports team…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy Service, China has been accumulating high-value memory semiconductors in anticipation of further US restrictions. Since October 2022, the US has been tightening rules that would limit China’s progress…
According to BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy service, there are two main pressure points that the US can utilize against China. First, the US consumer market is the largest in the world. Despite having diversified away from the US, it remains a very…
Democrats will not win a full sweep and implement drastic new tax hikes. However, our quant model still favors them to win the White House and just upgraded their odds. While we expect equity volatility around the election, investors do not need to worry about corporate tax hikes.
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, oil markets are caught in a tug-of-war that has kept oil prices in a trading range since H2 2023. Bearish demand concerns are enforcing an upper limit on the price of crude while bullish…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, in the final months of an election cycle, equities underperform relative to non-election years. This extends further into Q1 of the following year due to uncertainty. Once the election results are…