Highlights Russian negotiators in Vienna say talks with the West over Ukraine have reached a “dead end.” If talks are verifiably discontinued, global investors should reduce risk in their portfolios. Social unrest in…
Highlights The bull run in Vietnamese stocks is due for a pause as the weakness in overall EM markets spreads to this bourse. Household consumption will stay constrained as new COVID-19 cases remain high and fiscal and monetary…
Highlights Liquidity conditions in Bangladesh are easy and growth has revived. Exports are set to recover as well. Foreign reserve accumulation will continue, which will have positive implications for the economy and stock prices.…
Highlights Kenyan financial markets will sell off considerably ahead of the presidential elections next August given the backdrop of very weak growth, a rising public debt-to-GDP ratio and growing odds of a shift away from orthodox…
Highlights Authorities will be reluctant to devalue the currency this year to avoid a pass-through of higher global food prices into domestic food prices. Yet, chronically underwhelming economic growth will ultimately force the…
Highlights Massive fiscal deficits and high borrowing costs have led the government into a debt trap: interest payments alone cost the exchequer nearly half its revenues. Pursuing a tight fiscal and monetary policy now reduces the…
In the May 7, 2020 report, we argued that structurally low oil prices could, eventually necessitate a devaluation of the Saudi riyal. Our assumption for average oil prices was and remains $40 in 2020, $40 in 2021 and $35 in 2022. As a…
Chart II-1Nigeria: Poor BoP Position The Nigerian naira is facing a considerable risk of major devaluation stemming from strains on its balance of payments (BoP). That said, the risk of a sovereign default is very low over the…
The Kenyan shilling will depreciate by 15-20% in the next 12 months. The downward pressure on the currency stems from the country’s sizeable current account deficit. In addition, Kenya needs lower local interest rates and a weaker…
Highlights Bangladesh’s balance of payments (BoP) is a key pillar for the country’s financial markets and economy. The country’s BoP will deteriorate going forward. That, coupled with ongoing public debt monetization…