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Fixed Income

Nothing In CPI To Prevent A Fed Pause

The implications of this morning’s CPI report for Fed policy, Treasuries and TIPS.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
European Bond Strategy Ahead Of A Critical ECB Meeting

In this report, we review our European fixed income strategy recommendations ahead of tomorrow’s critical ECB meeting

Global Fixed Income Strategy
Market Opportunities In Central Europe

Real wages are set to rise in CE3 economies with implications for their asset markets and currencies. Of the three, Polish assets and the zloty are the most vulnerable.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
Hedging The Oil Risk: Sell EUR/NOK
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, valuations, interest rate differentials, and higher oil prices favor the NOK over the EUR. Higher oil prices, especially when they reflect tightening supply, act as a risk to the euro. This…
Daily Insights
The Dollar And Global Growth
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the counter-trend bounce in the dollar will continue. Factually, the trend in the dollar has depended on both global growth dynamics and the relative health of the US economy. From higher…
Daily Insights
Watch The Dots At September FOMC

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2023.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Bond Yields And Cyclicals Versus Defensives
Since the beginning of the year, our equally-weighted global cyclicals index has outperformed equally-weighted defensives by about 13%. As the chart above shows, this relative performance trend has been extremely positively correlated with US 10-year…
Daily Insights
Global Growth: Failing Engines

If we look at global growth as an aircraft, the plane is experiencing failing engines and will lose more altitude in the coming months. Yet, neither Chinese authorities, nor the Fed or the ECB will be quick to come to the rescue as global growth downshifts. These dynamics herald a stronger US dollar and lower EM risk asset prices.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
The BoC Stands Pat
As expected, the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 5% on Wednesday. In particular, the central bank highlighted that domestic economic growth deteriorated. Indeed, last week’s GDP release showed the Canadian economy unexpectedly contracted…
Daily Insights
Eurozone Economic Weakness A Headwind For EUR/USD
Recent Eurozone economic data indicate that restrictive monetary policy and the global manufacturing downturn are weighing down on the region’s economy. In particular, new orders at German factories plunged by 11.7% m/m in July – significantly below…
Daily Insights

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