Fixed Income
EM sovereign and corporate credit spreads are set to widen. Within a global credit portfolio, maintain a neutral allocation to EM credit markets versus US corporate credit. Favor EM local currency bonds over EM USD bonds.
Tactically Oversold Dollar Will Remain Countercyclical Hedge…For Now…
The cost of tariffs is falling on the US consumer, not foreign exporters or US firms.
This morning’s CPI report marginally tips the scales in favor of a September rate cut.
Canada: Mixed Jobs Print Reinforces Case for CGB Overweight…
Low Global Vol Keeps BTP-Bund Spread Tight…
The BoE Risks Falling Behind The Curve…
Expectations for US inflation at 3.3 percent are inconsistent with expectations for the Fed to slash rates, so one of these expectations is likely wrong. We describe how to play this mispricing. Plus, a new position is to go overweight global consumer discretionary (RXI).
Restrictive RBI Stance Risks Prolonging Slowdown…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2025.