Some thoughts on this morning's employment data and Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent attempts to talk down the 10-year Treasury yield.
The January ISM Services missed estimates, decreasing to 52.8 from 54.0 in December. The move was driven by activity components, while employment and suppliers’ delivery times increased. Additionally, the prices paid measure…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025.
While the US dollar has outperformed every single DM currency in the past few months, the only monetary asset it did not outperform is gold. The greenback is up between 5-10% against DM currencies since September of last year, but…
Trade tensions muddy the outlook for global central banks. The 2010s were an era of low growth and low inflation that called for easy monetary policy. The post-COVID era has been marked by overheating and high inflation calling for…
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Arthur Budaghyan, Chief Strategist of our Emerging Markets and China Investment Strategy services. Arthur highlights an important dichotomy in the US stock-bond yield correlation. In the past 12…
Core PCE inflation came in soft this morning and is tracking well below the Fed’s 2025 forecast. We highlight three upside risks to inflation and preview next week’s employment report.
Our Global Fixed Income strategists assessed the risk of a second wave of inflation, and discussed the opportunities within the inflation-linked bond (ILB) market. Global disinflation remains on track, though energy prices and…
The Bank of Canada cut by 25 bps to 3% as expected, and announced the end of quantitative tightening. This sixth consecutive cut brings the policy rate further into neutral territory, estimated to be in the 2.25%-to-3.25% range.…