Fixed Income

Many investors feel that the Phillips Curve has failed to predict weak inflation over the past decade. But this perception is due to a singular focus on the economic slack component of the modern-day version of the curve to the exclusion of inflation expectations, and a failure to fully consider the lasting impact of sustained periods of a negative output gap on those expectations. In addition, many investors tend to downplay the long-term balance sheet impact of two episodes of excesses and savings/capital misallocations on the relationship between the stance of monetary policy and the output gap, via a persistently negative shock to aggregate demand and a reduced sensitivity of economic activity to interest rates. The COVID-19 pandemic was certainly a major economic shock. But for now, it seems like this was a sharp income statement recession, not a balance-sheet recession. This fact, along with lower odds of negative supply-side shocks and several structural factors, suggest that inflation will be higher over the next ten years than it has over the past decade. Investors looking to protect against potentially higher inflation should look primarily to commodities, cyclical stocks, and US farmland. Gold is likely to remain well supported over the coming few years, but rich valuation suggests the long-term outlook for the yellow metal is poor. A hybrid TIPS/currency portfolio has historically been strongly correlated with the price of gold, and may provide investors with long-term protection against inflation – at a better price. Introduction Chart II-1A Surge In Long-Dated Inflation Expectations A Surge In Long-Dated Inflation Expectations A Surge In Long-Dated Inflation Expectations The pandemic, and the corresponding fiscal and monetary response is challenging the low-inflation outlook of many market participants. Chart II-1 highlights that long-dated market-based inflation expectations have surged past their pre-COVID levels after collapsing to the lowest-ever level in March. The shift in thinking about inflation has partly been a response to an extraordinary rise in government spending in many countries. But Chart II-1 shows that long-dated expectations in the US were mostly trendless from April to June as Federal support was distributed, and instead rose sharply in July and August in the lead-up to the Fed’s official shift to an average inflation targeting regime. This new dawn for US monetary policy has been prompted not just by the pandemic, but also by the extended period of below-target inflation over the past decade. In this report, we review how the past ten-year episode of low inflation can be successfully explained through the lens of the expectations-augmented (i.e. “modern-day”) Phillips Curve. Many investors fail to fully appreciate the impact that inflation expectations have on driving actual inflation, as well as the cumulative impact of two major capital and savings misallocations over the past 25 years on the responsiveness of demand to interest rates and on the level of inflation expectations. Using the modern-day Phillips Curve as a guide, we present several reasons in favor of the view that inflation will be higher over the next decade than over the past ten years. Finally, we conclude with an assessment of several ways for investors to protect their portfolios from rising inflation. Revisiting The “Modern-Day” Phillips Curve The original Phillips Curve, as formulated by New Zealand economist William Phillips in the late 1950s, described a negative relationship between the unemployment rate and the pace of wage growth. Given the close correlation between wage and overall price growth at the time, the Phillips Curve was soon extended and generalized to describe an inverse relationship between labor market slack and overall price inflation. Chart II-2Rising Unemployment And Inflation Challenged The Original Phillips Curve Rising Unemployment And Inflation Challenged The Original Phillips Curve Rising Unemployment And Inflation Challenged The Original Phillips Curve However, the experience of rising inflation alongside high unemployment from the late 1960s to the late 1970s underscored that prices are also importantly determined by inflation expectations and shocks to the supply-side of the economy (Chart II-2). In the 1980s and 1990s, the Federal Reserve’s success at reigning in inflation was achieved not only by raising interest rates to punishingly high levels, but also by sharply altering consumer, business, and investor expectations about future prices. The experience of the late 1960s and 1970s led to a revised form of the Phillips Curve, dubbed the “expectations-augmented” or “modern” version. As an equation, the modern Phillips Curve is described today by Fed officials, in terms of core inflation, as follows: πct = β1πet + β2πct-1 + β3πct-2 - β4SLACKt + β5IMPt + εt where: πct = Core inflation today πet = Expectations of inflation πct-n = Lagged core inflation SLACKt = Slack in the economy IMPt = Imported goods prices εt = Other shocks to prices Described verbally, this framework suggests that “economic slack, changes in imported goods prices, and idiosyncratic shocks all cause core inflation to deviate from its longer-term trend that is ultimately determined by long-run inflation expectations.1” This framework can easily be extended to headline inflation by adding changes in food and energy prices. In most formal models of the economy in use today, the modern Phillips Curve is combined with the New Keynesian demand function to describe business cycles: Yt = Y*t – β(r-r*) + εt where: Yt = Real GDP Y*t = Real potential GDP r = The real interest rate r* = The neutral rate of interest εt = Other shocks to output This equation posits that differences in the real interest rate from its neutral level, along with idiosyncratic shocks to demand, cause real GDP to deviate from potential output. Abstracting from import prices and idiosyncratic shocks, these two equations tell a simple and intuitive story of how the economy generally works: The stance of monetary policy determines the output gap and, The output gap, along with inflation expectations, determine inflation. The Modern-Day Phillips Curve: The Pre-2000 Experience This above view of inflation and demand was strongly accepted by investors before the 2008 global financial crisis, but the decade-long period of generally below-target inflation has caused a crisis of faith in the idea of the Phillips Curve. Charts II-3 and II-4 show the historical record of the New Keynesian demand function and the modern-day Phillips Curve, using five-year averages of the data in question to smooth out the impact of short-term and idiosyncratic effects. We use nominal GDP growth as our long-run proxy for the neutral rate of interest,2 the US Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) estimate of potential GDP to determine the output gap, and a proprietary measure of inflation expectations based on an adaptive expectations framework3 (Chart II-5). Chart II-3With Just Two Exceptions, Monetary Policy Strongly Explained Demand Before 2000 With Just Two Exceptions, Monetary Policy Strongly Explained Demand Before 2000 With Just Two Exceptions, Monetary Policy Strongly Explained Demand Before 2000 Chart II-4Similarly, Pre-2000 The Output Gap Generally Explained Unexpected Inflation Similarly, Pre-2000 The Output Gap Generally Explained Unexpected Inflation Similarly, Pre-2000 The Output Gap Generally Explained Unexpected Inflation Chart II-3 shows that until 1999, the stance of monetary policy was highly predictive of the output gap over a five-year period, with just two exceptions where major structural forces were at play: the late 1970s, and the second half of the 1990s. In the case of the former, the disruptive effect of persistently high inflation negatively impacted output growth despite easy monetary policy, and in the latter case, economic activity was modestly stronger than what interest rates would have implied due to the beneficial impact of the technologically-driven productivity boom of that decade. Similarly, Chart II-4 shows that until 1999 there was a good relationship between the output gap and the deviation in inflation from expectations, again with the late 1970s and late 1990s as exceptions. Along with the beneficial supply-side effects of the disinflationary tech boom, persistent import price weakness (via dollar strength) seems to have also played a role in suppressing inflation in the late 1990s (Chart II-6). Chart II-5The Expectations Component Of The Modern Phillips Curve, Visualized The Expectations Component Of The Modern Phillips Curve, Visualized The Expectations Component Of The Modern Phillips Curve, Visualized Chart II-6A Strong Dollar Also Played A Role In Suppressing Inflation During The 1990s A Strong Dollar Also Played A Role In Suppressing Inflation During The 1990s A Strong Dollar Also Played A Role In Suppressing Inflation During The 1990s   The Modern-Day Phillips Curve Post-2000 Following 2000, deviations between the monetary policy stance, the output gap, and inflation become more prominent, particularly after 2008. As we will illustrate below, these deviations are more apparent on the demand side. In the case of inflation, the question should be why inflation was not even lower in the years immediately following the global financial crisis. On both the demand and inflation side, these deviations are explainable, and in a way that helps us determine future inflation. Charts II-7 and II-8 show the same series as in Charts II-3 and II-4, but focused on the post-2000 period. From 2000-2007, Chart II-8 shows that the relationship between the output gap and the deviation in inflation from expectations was not particularly anomalous. The output gap was negative from the end of the 2001 recession until the beginning of 2006, and inflation was correspondingly below expectations on average for the cycle. Chart II-7Post-2000, The Output Gap Decoupled From The Monetary Policy Stance Post-2000, The Output Gap Decoupled From The Monetary Policy Stance Post-2000, The Output Gap Decoupled From The Monetary Policy Stance Chart II-8Since The GFC, The Real Mystery Is Why Inflation Has Been So Strong Since The GFC, The Real Mystery Is Why Inflation Has Been So Strong Since The GFC, The Real Mystery Is Why Inflation Has Been So Strong   Chart II-7 shows that the anomaly during that cycle was in the relationship between the output gap and the stance of monetary policy. Monetary policy was the easiest it had been in two decades, yet the output gap was negative for several years following the recession. Larry Summers pointedly cited this divergence in his revival of the secular stagnation theory in November 2013, arguing that it was strong evidence that excess savings were depressing aggregate demand via a lower neutral rate of interest and that this effect pre-dated the financial crisis. Why was demand so weak during that period? Chart II-9 compares the annualized per capita growth in the expenditure components of GDP during the 2001-2007 expansion to the 1991-2001 period. The chart shows that all components of GDP were lower than during the 1991-2001 period, with investment – the most interest rate sensitive component of GDP – showing up as particularly weak. On the surface, this supports the idea of structural factors weighing heavily on the neutral rate, rendering monetary policy less easy than investors would otherwise expect. But Chart II-9 treats the 2001-2007 years as one period, ignoring what happened over the course of the expansion. Chart II-10 repeats the exercise shown in Chart II-9 from Q1 2001 to Q3 2005, and highlights that the annualized growth in per capita residential investment was much stronger than it was during the 1991-2001 period – and nonresidential fixed investment was much weaker. Spending on goods was roughly the same, which is impressive considering that the late 1990s experienced a productivity boom and robust wage growth. All the negative contribution to growth from residential investment during the 2001-2007 expansion came after Q3 2005, as the housing market bubble burst in response to rising interest rates. In short, Chart II-10 highlights that there was a strong relationship between easy monetary policy and the demand for housing, but that this was not true for the corporate sector. Chart II-9Looking At The Whole 2001-2007 Period, Investment Was Extremely Weak January 2021 January 2021 Chart II-10Housing Absolutely Responded To Easy Monetary Policy January 2021 January 2021   Explaining Weak CAPEX Growth In The Early 2000s This leads us to ask why CAPEX was so weak during the 2001-2007 period. In addition to changes in interest rates, business investment is strongly influenced by expectations of consumer demand and corporate profitability. Chart II-11 shows that real nonresidential fixed investment and as-reported earnings moved in lockstep during the period, and that this delayed corporate-sector recovery also impacted the pace of hiring. Weak expectations for consumer spending do not appear to be the culprit. Chart II-12 highlights that while real personal consumption expenditure growth fell during the recession, spending did not contract (as it had done during the previous recession) and capital expenditures fell much more than what real PCE would have implied. Chart II-11Post-2001, Persistently Weak Profits Led To Weak Investment And Jobs Growth Post-2001, Persistently Weak Profits Led To Weak Investment And Jobs Growth Post-2001, Persistently Weak Profits Led To Weak Investment And Jobs Growth Chart II-12CAPEX Was Much Weaker In 2002 Than Justified By Consumer Spending CAPEX Was Much Weaker In 2002 Than Justified By Consumer Spending CAPEX Was Much Weaker In 2002 Than Justified By Consumer Spending   Instead, persistently weak CAPEX in the early 2000s appears to be best explained by the damaging impact of corporate excesses that built up during the dot-com bubble. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 was passed in response to a series of corporate accounting frauds that came to light in the wake of the bubble, but in many cases had been occurring for several years. Chart II-13 highlights that widespread write-offs badly impacted earnings quality and the growth in the asset value of equipment and intellectual property products (IPP), both of which only began to improve again in early 2003. This occurred alongside an outright contraction in real investment in IPP as investors lost faith in company financial statements and heavily scrutinized corporate spending. Chart II-14highlights that a contraction in IP spending was a huge change from the double-digit pace of growth that occurred in the late 1990s. Chart II-13The Damaging Impact Of Corporate Excesses The Damaging Impact Of Corporate Excesses The Damaging Impact Of Corporate Excesses Chart II-14A Near-Unprecedented Collapse In IPP Investment Followed The Tech Bubble A Near-Unprecedented Collapse In IPP Investment Followed The Tech Bubble A Near-Unprecedented Collapse In IPP Investment Followed The Tech Bubble   In addition, corporate sector indebtedness also appears to have played a role in driving weak investment in the early 2000s. While the interest burden of nonfinancial corporate debt was not as high in 2000 as it was in the early 1990s, Chart II-15 highlights that debt to operating income surged in the late 1990s – which likely caused investors already skeptical about company financial statements to impose a period of elevated capital discipline on corporate managers following the recession. Chart II-16 shows that while the peak in the 12-month trailing corporate bond default rate in January 2002 was similar to that of the early 90s, it was meaningfully higher on average in the lead-up to and following the recession. Chart II-15The Late-1990s Saw A Major Increase In Corporate Debt The Late-1990s Saw A Major Increase In Corporate Debt The Late-1990s Saw A Major Increase In Corporate Debt Chart II-16Above-Average Corporate Defaults Before And After The 2001 Recession Above-Average Corporate Defaults Before And After The 2001 Recession Above-Average Corporate Defaults Before And After The 2001 Recession   To summarize, Charts II-10-16 underscore that management excesses, governance failures, and elevated debt in the corporate sector in the 1990s were the root cause of the seeming divergence between monetary policy and the output gap from 2001 to 2007. This was, unfortunately, the first of two major savings/capital misallocations that have occurred in the US over the past 25 years. Explaining The Post-GFC Experience In the early 2000s, the Federal Reserve was faced with a decision between two monetary policy paths: one that was appropriate for the corporate sector, and one that was appropriate for the household sector. The Fed chose the former, and it inadvertently contributed to the second major savings/capital misallocation to occur over the past 25 years: the enormous debt-driven bubble in US housing that culminated into the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007-2009. Chart II-17It Is No Mystery Why Demand And Inflation Were Weak Last Cycle It Is No Mystery Why Demand And Inflation Were Weak Last Cycle It Is No Mystery Why Demand And Inflation Were Weak Last Cycle As a result, 2007 to 2013/2014 was a mirror image of the early 2000s. Unlike previous post-war downturns, the GFC precipitated a balance-sheet recession that deeply affected homeowners and the financial system. This lasting damage led to a multi-year household deleveraging process, which substantially lowered the responsiveness of the economy to stimulative monetary policy. On a year-over-year basis, Chart II-17 shows that total nominal household mortgage credit growth was continuously negative for six and a half years, from Q4 2008 until Q2 2015, underscoring that the large divergence during this period between the stance of monetary policy and the output gap should not, in any way, be surprising to investors. And this is even before accounting for the negative impact of the euro area sovereign debt crisis and double-dip recession, or the persistent fiscal drag in nearly every advanced economy last cycle. What is surprising about the post-GFC experience is that inflation was not substantially weaker than it was, which is ironic considering that the secular stagnation narrative was revived to help explain below-target inflation. Chart II-8 showed that actual inflation steadily improved versus expected inflation alongside the closing of the output gap and the decline in the unemployment rate, but that it was much stronger than the output gap would have implied – particularly during the early phase of the economic recovery. It is still an open question as to why this occurred. A weak dollar and a strong recovery in oil prices likely helped support consumer prices, but we doubt that these two factors alone explain the discrepancy. A more credible answer is that expectations stayed very well anchored due to the Fed’s strong record of maintaining low and stable inflation (thus preventing a disinflationary spiral). In addition, the fact that the Fed actively communicated to the public during the early recovery years that a large part of its objective was to prevent deflation may have helped support prices. For example, in a CBS interview following the Fed’s November 2010 decision to engage in a second round of quantitative easing (“QE2”), then-Chair Bernanke prominently tied the decision to the fact that “inflation is very, very low.” When asked whether additional rounds of easing might be required, Bernanke responded that it was “certainly possible” and again cited inflation as a core consideration. Chart II-18Rising US Oil Production Caused The Massive 2014 Oil Price Shock Rising US Oil Production Caused The Massive 2014 Oil Price Shock Rising US Oil Production Caused The Massive 2014 Oil Price Shock While inflation did not ultimately fall relative to expectations post-GFC as much as the output gap would have implied, the long-lasting weakness in demand left expectations vulnerable to exogenous shocks. In 2014, such a shock occurred: oil prices collapsed almost exactly at the point that US tight oil production crossed the four-million-barrels-per-day mark (Chart II-18), a level of output that many experts had previously believed would not be attainable (or would roughly mark the peak in production). We view this event as a truly exogenous shock to prices, given that research & development of shale technology had been ongoing since the late 1970s and only happened to finally gain traction around 2010. Chart II-19 shows that the 2014 oil price collapse caused a clear break lower in our measure of inflation expectations, to the lowest value recorded since the 1940s. This break also occurred in market-based expectations of inflation, such as long-dated CPI swap rates and TIPS breakeven inflation rates, and surveys of consumer inflation expectations (Chart II-20). This decline in inflation expectations meant that the output gap needed to be above zero in order for the Fed to hit its 2% target (absent any upwards shock to prices), and that the meaningful acceleration of inflation from 2016 to 2018 should actually be viewed as inflation “outperformance” because its long-term trend had been lowered by the earlier downward shift in expectations. Chart II-19The 2014 Oil Price Shock Collapsed Inflation Expectations... The 2014 Oil Price Shock Collapsed Inflation Expectations... The 2014 Oil Price Shock Collapsed Inflation Expectations... Chart II-20...No Matter What Inflation Expectations Measure Is Used ...No Matter What Inflation Expectations Measure Is Used ...No Matter What Inflation Expectations Measure Is Used   The Modern-Day Phillips Curve: Key Takeaways Based on the evidence presented above, we see the perceived “failure” of the Phillips Curve to predict weak inflation over the past decade as being due to: A singular focus on the output gap/slack component of the modern Phillips Curve, to the exclusion of expectations A failure to fully consider the lasting impact of sustained periods of a negative output gap on expectations Downplaying the long-term balance-sheet impact of two episodes of excesses and savings/capital misallocations on the relationship between the stance of monetary policy and the output gap, via a persistently negative shock to aggregate demand and a reduced sensitivity of economic activity to interest rates. One crucial takeaway from the modern-day Phillips Curve equation presented above is that if inflation expectations are largely formed based on the experience of past inflation, then inflation is ultimately determined by three dimensions of the output gap: whether it is rising or falling, whether it is above or below zero, and how long it has been above or below zero. The extended period of below-potential output over the past two decades, accelerated recently by a major negative shock to energy prices, has now lowered inflation expectations to a point that merely reaching the Fed’s target constitutes inflation “outperformance.” This realization, made even more urgent by the COVID-19 pandemic, has strongly motivated the Fed’s official shift to an average inflation targeting regime. That shift does not suggest that the Fed is moving away from the modern-day Phillips Curve framework; rather, the Fed’s new policy is aimed at closing the output gap as quickly as possible in order to prevent a renewed decline in inflation expectations (and thus inflation itself) from another long period of activity running below its potential. The Outlook For Inflation While the Fed has shifted its policy to prefer higher inflation, that does not necessarily mean it will get it. Why is it likely to happen this time, if the last economic cycle featured such a large divergence between monetary policy and the output gap? Chart II-21Above-Target Inflation Is Not Imminent Above-Target Inflation Is Not Imminent Above-Target Inflation Is Not Imminent First, to clarify, we do not believe that above-target inflation is imminent. The COVID-19 pandemic was an extreme event, and even given the very substantial recovery in the labor market, the unemployment rate remains almost 2½ percentage points above the Congressional Budget long-run estimate of NAIRU (Chart II-21). But based on our analysis of the modern-day Phillips Curve presented above, there are at least four main reasons to expect that inflation may be higher on average over the next ten years than over the past decade. Reason #1: This Appears To Be A Sharp Income Statement Recession, Not A Balance-Sheet Recession We highlighted above the importance of savings/capital misallocations in driving a gap between monetary policy and the output gap over the past two decades, but this recession was obviously not sparked by such an event. The onset of the pandemic came following a long period of US household sector deleveraging which, while painful, helped restore consumer balance sheets. Chart II-22 highlights that household debt to disposable income had fallen back to 2001 levels at the onset of the pandemic, and the interest burden of debt servicing had fallen to a 40-year low. From a wealth perspective, Chart II-23 highlights that total household liabilities to net worth have fallen below where they were at the peak of the housing market boom in 2005 for almost all income groups, and that a decline in leverage has been particularly noteworthy for the lowest income group since mid-2016. Chart II-22Households Have Repaired Their Balance Sheets... Households Have Repaired Their Balance Sheets... Households Have Repaired Their Balance Sheets... Chart II-23...Across Almost All Income Brackets ...Across Almost All Income Brackets ...Across Almost All Income Brackets   Total credit to the nonfinancial corporate sector rose significantly relative to GDP over the course of the last cycle, but subpar growth in real nonresidential fixed investment and a rise in share buybacks highlight that this debt went largely to fund changes in capital structure rather than increased productive capacity. Chart II-24 highlights that corporate sector interest payments as a percentage of operating income are low relative to history, and they do not seem to be necessarily dependent on extremely low government bond yields.4 Finally, the corporate bond default rate may have already peaked (Chart II-25) and the percentage of jobs permanently lost looks more like 2001 than 2007 (Chart II-26), signaling that a prolonged balance-sheet recession is unlikely. Chart II-24Corporate Sector Debt Is Currently High, But Affordable Corporate Sector Debt Is Currently High, But Affordable Corporate Sector Debt Is Currently High, But Affordable Chart II-25Corporate Defaults Have Already Peaked Corporate Defaults Have Already Peaked Corporate Defaults Have Already Peaked Chart II-26So Far, Permanent Job Losses Look Like The 2001 Recession, Not 2007/2008 So Far, Permanent Job Losses Look Like The 2001 Recession, Not 2007/2008 So Far, Permanent Job Losses Look Like The 2001 Recession, Not 2007/2008 The bottom line is that while the pandemic has not yet been resolved and that major and permanent economic damage cannot be ruled out, the absence of “balance-sheet dynamics” is likely to eventually lead to a stronger responsiveness of demand for goods and services to what is set to be an extraordinarily easy monetary policy stance for at least another two years. Reason #2: The Fed May Be Able To Jawbone Inflation Higher The Fed’s public commitment to set interest rates in a way that will generate moderately above-target inflation is highly reminiscent of its defense of quantitative easing in the early phase of the last economic expansion, and (in the opposite fashion) of Paul Volker’s campaign in the 1980s against the “self-fulfilling prophecy” of inflation. From 2008-2014, the Fed explicitly linked the odds of future bond buying to the pace of actual inflation in its public statements. On its own, this was not enough to cause inflation to rise, but we highlighted above that it may have contributed to the fact that inflation expectations did not collapse. Chart II-1 on page 12 showed that long-dated market-based expectations for inflation have already been impacted by the Fed’s regime shift, suggesting decent odds that Fed policy will contribute to self-fulfilling price increases if the US economy does indeed avoid “balance-sheet dynamics” as a result of the pandemic. Reason #3: The Odds Of Negative Supply Shocks Are Lower Than In The Past We noted above the impact that energy price shocks and large typically exchange-rate driven changes in import prices can have on inflation, with the 2014 oil price collapse serving as the most vivid recent example. On both fronts, a value perspective suggests that the odds of negative shocks to inflation over the coming few years from oil and the dollar are lower than they have been in the past. Chart II-27 shows that the cost of global energy consumption as a share of GDP has fallen below its median since 1970, and Chart II-28 highlights that the US dollar is comparatively expensive relative to other currencies – which raises the bar for further gains. Stable-to-higher oil prices alongside a flat-to-weak dollar implies reflationary rather than disinflationary pressure. Chart II-27Massive, Downward Shocks To Oil Prices Are Now Less Likely Massive, Downward Shocks To Oil Prices Are Now Less Likely Massive, Downward Shocks To Oil Prices Are Now Less Likely Chart II-28Valuation Favors A Declining Dollar, Which Is Inflationary January 2021 January 2021   Reason #4: Structural Factors In addition to the cyclical arguments noted above, my colleague Peter Berezin, BCA’s Chief Global Strategist, has also highlighted several structural arguments in favor of higher inflation. Chart II-29 highlights that the world support ratio, calculated as the number of workers relative to the number of consumers, peaked early last decade after rising for nearly 40 years. This suggests that output will fall relative to spending the coming several years, which should have the effect of boosting prices. Chart II-30 also highlights that globalization is on the back foot, with the ratio of trade-to-output having moved sideways for more than a decade. Since the early 1990s, rising global trade intensity has corresponded with very low goods prices in many countries, and the end of this trend reduces the impact of a factor that has been weighing on consumer prices globally over the past two decades. Chart II-29Less Production Relative To Consumption Is Inflationary Less Production Relative To Consumption Is Inflationary Less Production Relative To Consumption Is Inflationary Chart II-30Trade Is Not Suppressing Prices As Much As It Used To Trade Is Not Suppressing Prices As Much As It Used To Trade Is Not Suppressing Prices As Much As It Used To   Positioning For Eventually Higher Inflation Below we present an assessment of several potential candidates across the major asset classes that investors can use to protect their portfolios from rising inflation once it emerges. We conclude with a new trade idea that may provide investors with inflation protection at a better valuation profile than more traditional inflation hedges. Fixed-Income Within fixed-income, inflation-linked bonds and derivatives (such as CPI swaps) are the obvious choice for investors seeking inflation protection. Inflation-linked bonds are much better played relative to nominal equivalents, as inflation expectations make up the difference between nominal and inflation-linked yields. But Table II-1 shows that 5-10 year TIPS are also likely to provide positive absolute returns over the coming year even in a scenario where 10-year Treasury yields are rising, so long as real yields do not account for the vast majority of the increase. Barring a major and positive change in the long-term economic outlook over the coming year, our sense is that the Fed would act to cap any outsized increase in real yields and that TIPS remain an attractive long-only option until the Fed becomes sufficiently comfortable with the inflation outlook. Table II-1TIPS Will Earn Positive Absolute Returns Next Year Barring A Surge In Real Yields January 2021 January 2021 Commodities Commodities are arguably the most traditional inflation hedge, and are likely to provide investors with superior risk-adjusted returns in an environment where inflation expectations are rising. Our Commodity & Energy Strategy service is positive on gold, and recently argued that Brent crude prices are likely to average between $65-$70/barrel between 2021-2025.5 Chart II-31Gold Is Expensive And Long-Term Returns May Be Poor Gold Is Expensive And Long-Term Returns May Be Poor Gold Is Expensive And Long-Term Returns May Be Poor One caveat about gold is that, unlike oil prices, it appears to be quite expensive relative to its history. Since gold does not provide investors with a cash flow, over time real (or inflation-adjusted) prices should ultimately be mean-reverting unless real production costs steadily trend higher. Chart II-31 highlights that the real price of gold is already sky-high and well above its historical average. Over a ten-year time horizon, gold prices fell meaningfully following the last two occasions where real gold prices reached current levels, suggesting that the long-term outlook for gold returns is poor. However, over the coming few years, gold prices are likely to remain well supported given our economic outlook, the Fed’s new monetary policy regime, and the consistently negative correlation between real yields and the US dollar and gold prices. As such, we would recommend gold as a hedge against the fear of inflation, which is likely to increase over the cyclical horizon. Equities We provide two perspectives on how equity investors may be able to protect themselves against rising inflation. The first is simply to favor cyclical versus defensive sectors. The former is likely to continue to benefit next year in response to a strengthening economy as COVID-19 vaccines are progressively distributed, and historically cyclical sectors have tended to outperform during periods of rising inflation. In addition, my colleague Anastasios Avgeriou, BCA’s Equity Strategist, presented Table II-2 in a June Special Report,6 and it highlights that cyclical sectors (plus health care) have enjoyed positive relative returns on average during periods of rising inflation. Table II-2S&P 500 Sector Performance During Inflationary Periods January 2021 January 2021 The second strategy is to favor companies that are more likely to successfully pass on increasing prices to their customers (i.e., firms with “pricing power”). Pricing power is a difficult attribute to identify, but one possible approach is to select industries that have experienced above-average sales per share growth over the past decade. While it is true that the past ten years have seen low rather than high inflation, it has also seen firms in general struggle to achieve robust top-line growth. Industries that have succeeded in this environment may thus be able to pass on higher costs to their customers without disproportionately suffering from lower sales. Chart II-32Last Decade's Revenue Winners: Potential Pricing Power Candidates Last Decade's Revenue Winners: Potential Pricing Power Candidates Last Decade's Revenue Winners: Potential Pricing Power Candidates Chart II-32 presents the historical relative performance of these industries in the US plus the materials and energy sector, equally-weighted and compared to an equally-weighted industry group portfolio (level 2 GICS). The chart shows that the portfolio has outperformed steadily over the past decade, although admittedly at a slower pace since 2018. An interesting feature of this approach is that, in addition to including industries within the industrials, consumer discretionary, and health care sectors (along with the food & staples retailing component of the consumer staples sector), tech stocks show up prominently due to their outstanding revenue performance over the past decade. Table II-2 above highlighted that tech stocks have historically performed poorly during periods of rising inflation, although it is unclear whether this is due to increasing prices or expectations of rising interest rates. Tech stocks are typically long-duration assets, meaning that they are very sensitive to the discount rate, but the Fed’s new monetary policy regime all but guarantees that investors will see a gap between inflation and rates for a time. It is thus an open question how tech stocks would perform in the future in response to rising inflation, and we plan to revisit this topic in a future report. Chart II-33Owners Of Existing Infrastructure Assets Are Primarily Utilities And Telecom Companies Owners Of Existing Infrastructure Assets Are Primarily Utilities And Telecom Companies Owners Of Existing Infrastructure Assets Are Primarily Utilities And Telecom Companies As a final point within the stock market, we would caution against equity portfolios favoring companies that are owners or operators of infrastructure assets. While increased infrastructure spending may indeed occur in the US over the coming several years, indexes focused on companies with sizeable existing infrastructure assets tend to be highly concentrated in the utilities and telecommunications sectors. Chart II-33 shows that the relative performance of the MSCI ACWI Infrastructure Index is nearly identical to that of a 50/50 utilities/telecom services portfolio, two sectors that are defensive rather than pro-cyclical and that have historically performed poorly during periods of rising inflation. Direct Real Estate Alongside commodities, direct real estate investment is also typically viewed as a traditional inflation hedge. For now, however, the outlook for important segments of the commercial real estate market is sufficiently cloudy that it is difficult to form a high conviction view in favor of the asset class. CMBS delinquency rates on office properties have remained low during the pandemic, but those of retail and accommodation have soared and the long-term outlook for all three may have permanently shifted due to the impact of the pandemic. By contrast, industrial and medical properties are likely to do well, with the former likely to be increasingly negatively correlated with the performance of retail properties in the coming few years (i.e., “warehouses versus malls”). I noted my colleague Peter Berezin’s structural arguments for inflation above, and Peter has also highlighted farmland as a real asset that is likely to do well in an environment of rising inflation.7 Chart II-34 further supports the argument: the chart shows that despite a significant increase in real farm real estate values over the past 20 years, returns to operators as a % of farmland values are not unattractive. In addition, USDA forecasts for 2020 suggest that operator returns will be the highest in a decade relative to current 10-year Treasury yields, underscoring both the capital appreciation and relative yield potential of US farmland. A Hybrid TIPS/Currency Inflation-Hedged Portfolio Finally, as we highlighted in Section 1, in a world of extremely low government bond yields, global ex-US investors have the advantage of being able to hedge against deflationary risks in a long-only portfolio by employing the US dollar as a diversifying asset. The dollar is consistently negatively correlated with global stock prices, and this relationship tends to strengthen during crisis periods. The flip side is that US-based investors have the advantage of being able to hedge against inflationary risks in a long-only portfolio by buying global currencies. Chart II-35 presents a 50/50 portfolio of US TIPS and an equally-weighted basket of six major DM currencies against the US dollar. The chart highlights that the portfolio is strongly positively correlated with gold prices, but with a better valuation profile. We already showed in Chart II-28 on page 28 that global currencies are undervalued versus the US dollar. TIPS valuation is not as attractive given that real yields are at record low levels, but the 10-year TIPS breakeven inflation rate currently sits at its 40th percentile historically (and thus has room to move higher). Chart II-34Farmland: Protection Again Inflation, At A Decent Yield Farmland: Protection Again Inflation, At A Decent Yield Farmland: Protection Again Inflation, At A Decent Yield Chart II-35A Hybrid TIPS/Currency Portfolio: Liquid, And Cheaper Than Gold A Hybrid TIPS/Currency Portfolio: Liquid, And Cheaper Than Gold A Hybrid TIPS/Currency Portfolio: Liquid, And Cheaper Than Gold   As such, while gold prices are likely to remain supported over the cyclical horizon, a hybrid TIPS/currency portfolio may also provide investors with long-term protection against inflation – at a better price. Jonathan LaBerge, CFA Vice President The Bank Credit Analyst Footnotes 1 “Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy,” Janet Yellen, Speech at the Philip Gamble Memorial Lecture, University of Massachusetts - Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, September 24, 2015. 2 The use of nominal GDP growth as our proxy for the neutral rate of interest is based on the idea that borrowing costs are stimulative if they are below that of income growth. 3 An adaptive expectations framework suggests that expectations for future inflation are largely determined by what has occurred in the past. Our proxy for inflation expectations is thus calculated using simple exponential smoothing of the actual PCE deflator, which provides us with a long and consistent time series for expectations. 4 The second debt service ratio shown in Chart II-24 would only rise to its 68th historical percentile if the 10-year Treasury yield were to rise to 3%, or the 75th with a 10-year yield at 4%. This would be elevated relative to history, but not extreme. 5 Please see Commodity & Energy Strategy Report “BCA’s 2021-25 Brent Forecast: $65-$70/bbl,” dated November 12, 2020, available at ces.bcaresearch.com 6 Please see US Equity Strategy Special Report “Revisiting Equity Sector Winners And Losers When Inflation Climbs,” dated June 1, 2020, available at uses.bcaresearch.com 7 Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report “Will There Be A Fiscal Hangover?” dated May 29, 2020, available at gis.bcaresearch.com

This is our last report of this year. We will resume publications in January. The EM strategy team wishes you a happy holiday season and a prosperous new year. Chart Of The weekFiscal Thrust Is A Major Negative In 2021 Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Emerging market equities, currencies and credit markets are facing crosscurrents. On the positive side, their business cycle will continue to improve, albeit from very low levels, and there is too much money chasing fewer securities globally. On the other hand, several factors argue for a shakeout in EM financial markets: (1) peak investor sentiment and positioning, (2) peak stimulus and continued regulatory tightening in China and (3) the negative fiscal thrust in the US as well as in EM ex-China, Korea and Taiwan. Our Chart of the Week illustrates that the aggregate fiscal thrust in EM ex-China, Korea and Taiwan will be -2.7% of GDP in 2021. The charts on the following pages illustrate these positives and negatives. With such factors in mind, EM risk assets should price in those negatives and work out excesses before resuming their uptrend. Hence, our best hunch is that a potential shakeout is likely to occur before a breakout. Arthur Budaghyan Chief Emerging Markets Strategist arthurb@bcaresearch.com EM ex-China: Fiscal Thrust And New Covid Cases In many emerging economies, the good news about the vaccines could be offset by a negative fiscal thrust in 2021. Brazil, Peru, Poland and Hungary stand out as those economies facing the most negative fiscal thrust in 2021. Brazil is in an especially  precarious position and is facing a dilemma: financial markets might sell off in the wake of fiscal stimulus or the economy will relapse again if fiscal policy is not eased substantially. Chart 1 Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 2EM ex-China: Fiscal Thrust And New Covid Cases Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 3EM ex-China: Fiscal Thrust And New Covid Cases Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents   Will EM Share Prices Break Out? EM equity prices have risen back to their highs of the last decade. Will they break out and enter a secular bull market? In our outlook report for 2021, for the first time in the past 10 years we suggested that odds of a breakout next year are more than 50%. Nevertheless, it could be preceded by a shakeout. The following pages contain many indicators and charts that highlight both upside and downside risks. Watching emerging Asian credit markets is essential: if the excess return on high-yield corporate bonds breaks out above investment grade bonds, odds of a breakout will rise. Chart 4Will EM Share Prices Break Out? Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 5Will EM Share Prices Break Out? Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 6Will EM Share Prices Break Out? Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents   Outside The US, Global Equities Have Not Broken Out Yet Only US stocks have had a broad-based breakout – both large and small caps as well as the equal-weighted index. Global ex-US equity indexes have not yet broken out above their previous highs. Chart 7Outside The US, Global Equities Have Not Broken Out Yet Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 8Outside The US, Global Equities Have Not Broken Out Yet Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 9Outside The US, Global Equities Have Not Broken Out Yet Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 10Outside The US, Global Equities Have Not Broken Out Yet Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents   Too Much Money Chasing Fewer Securities One major reason to expect breakouts in global ex-US share prices is too much money chasing fewer securities. The current round of QEs is producing ballooning broad money supply worldwide. Such a powerful boost to broad money supply is a major departure for QE programs from those of the last decade. We discussed those differences in the following special report: Dissecting The Impact Of QE Programs On Asset Prices And Inflation. Chart 11Too Much Money Chasing Fewer Securities Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 12Too Much Money Chasing Fewer Securities Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 13Too Much Money Chasing Fewer Securities Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 14Too Much Money Chasing Fewer Securities Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents   EM/China EPS Recovery To Continue In H1 2021 As previous stimulus packages continue to work their way through the Chinese economy, its business cycle will remain robust in H1 2021. Reviving business and consumer confidence will reinforce it. EM corporate profits will continue recovering in H1 2021. Chart 15EM/China EPS Recovery To Continue In H1 2021 Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 16EM/China EPS Recovery To Continue In H1 2021 Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 17EM/China EPS Recovery To Continue In H1 2021 Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 18EM/China EPS Recovery To Continue In H1 2021 Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents   Global Business Cycle And Investor Expectations Global trade and manufacturing have staged a strong comeback but investor/analyst expectations are already very elevated. Chart 19Global Business Cycle And Investor Expectations Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 20Global Business Cycle And Investor Expectations Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 21Global Business Cycle And Investor Expectations Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 22Global Business Cycle And Investor Expectations Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents   Growth In EM ex-China, Korea And Taiwan In EM ex-China, Korea and Taiwan, the economic activity will continue to improve, albeit from very low levels. Chart 23Growth In EM ex-China, Korea And Taiwan Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 24Growth In EM ex-China, Korea And Taiwan Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 25Growth In EM ex-China, Korea And Taiwan Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 26Growth In EM ex-China, Korea And Taiwan Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents   Investor Sentiment On Stocks The latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey noted that investor overweights in EM stocks and commodities are the highest since November 2010 and February 2011, respectively.  Overall investor "risk on" optimism is the highest since early 2011. Our charts corroborate extremely bullish investor sentiment. Chart 27Investor Sentiment on Stocks Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 28Investor Sentiment on Stocks Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 29Investor Sentiment on Stocks Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents   Red Flag For Chinese Equities Rising corporate bond yields in China’s onshore bond market are not an impediment to rising Chinese share prices as long as forward EPS net revisions are also rising. Recently, not only have onshore corporate bond yields risen but also forward EPS net revisions have rolled over. Such a combination does not bode well for Chinese equities. Chart 30Red Flag For Chinese Equities Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents China’s Monetary Conditions Have Tightened In China, monetary conditions have tightened as real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates have risen considerably and the RMB has appreciated. Such tightening has historically heralded a shakeout in the domestic A-share market and industrial metals prices. Chart 31China's Monetary Conditions Have Tightened Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 32China's Monetary Conditions Have Tightened Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Message From Chinese Equities Chinese cyclical equity sectors and small cap stocks have paused or have had a small setback despite strong economic numbers. This could be a roadmap for DM and EM share prices in the coming months. Chart 33Message From Chinese Equities Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 34Message From Chinese Equities Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents   Message From Chinese Equities China’s A-share index and relative performance of Chinese cyclical stocks versus defensive ones point to a halt in the EM and commodities rallies. Chart 35Message From Chinese Equities Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 36Message From Chinese Equities Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents China: Peak Stimulus The PBoC has been withdrawing liquidity from the banking system — the seasonally-adjusted excess reserves ratio has been trending lower. This points to a peak in the credit impulse. Reduced central and local government bonds issuance entails a crest in the fiscal stimulus. Chart 37China: Peak Stimulus Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 38China: Peak Stimulus Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 39China: Peak Stimulus Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 40China: Peak Stimulus Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents   China Stimulus And EM Stocks And Commodities Cycles in the adjusted Total Social Financing (TSF) lead fluctuations in EM equity and industrial metals prices. Can EM and commodities break out despite the peak stimulus in China? They have not been able to do so in the past 10 years. Stay tuned. Chart 41China Stimulus and EM Stocks And Commodities Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 42China Stimulus and EM Stocks And Commodities Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents The US Dollar Is Very Oversold And Is Due For A Rebound Following the 2016 US elections, the US dollar rallied strongly for several weeks before selling off violently. It seems that the broad trade-weighted dollar is now following a reverse pattern. The US dollar in 2016 is shown inverted in this chart. The greenback was selling off before the 2020 US elections and has since continued to weaken. If this reverse pattern is to play out, the US dollar will near its bottom soon and then stage a playable rebound. Chart 43The US Dollar Is Very Oversold and Is Due For A Rebound Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 44The US Dollar Is Very Oversold and Is Due For A Rebound Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Several Indicators Herald A US Dollar Rebound The relative outperformance of the US equal-weighted equity index against its global peers and the recent relapse in a cyclical European currency (the Swedish krona) versus a defensive currency (the Swiss franc) point to a potential rebound in the US dollar. Chart 45Several Indicators Herald A US Dollar Rebound Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 46Several Indicators Herald A US Dollar Rebound Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents   Chart 47Several Indicators Herald A US Dollar Rebound Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Commodities Prices Have Surged Recently Many commodities prices have recently spiked after the notable rally from their March/April lows. Is the latest spike the final climax phase of the cyclical rally? If yes, China-related plays might have approached a major peak. Chart 48Commodities Prices Have Surged Recently Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 49Commodities Prices Have Surged Recently Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents   The Latest Rebound In Oil Prices Is Unsustainable The US and European mobility index points to lower gasoline consumption. Critically, the rise in US oil inventories (shown inverted) points to a drop in crude prices. Chart 50The Latest Rebound In Oil Prices Is Unsustainable Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 51The Latest Rebound In Oil Prices Is Unsustainable Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents   Chart 52The Latest Rebound In Oil Prices Is Unsustainable Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents The Long-Term Oil Outlook Global oil demand will rise next year, as the deployment of the coronavirus vaccines revives mobility and travel. However, greater demand will be offset by higher crude production in 2021. The long-term oil outlook is dismal as the OPEC+ arrangement of suppressing crude output will likely prove unsustainable. In turn, oil consumption will be suppressed by green policies. Notably, long-term (three- and five-year) oil price forwards have failed to advance. Chart 53The Long-Term Oil Outlook Chinese Oil Imports Have Slowed Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 54The Long-Term Oil Outlook Oil Production Will Rise For Major Producers Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 55The Long-Term Oil Outlook Long-Term Oil Prices Remain Depressed Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 56The Long-Term Oil Outlook Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents   EM Fixed-Income Markets EM sovereign and corporate credit spreads (shown inverted on the chart) move in tandem with commodities prices and EM exchange rates. We continue to recommend receiving 10-year swap rates in Mexico, Colombia, Russia, Malaysia, India and China. In the long run, EM currencies are attractive versus the US dollar. Investors should consider buying cash bonds on potential EM currency weakness. Chart 57EM Fixed-Income Markets Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 58EM Fixed-Income Markets Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 59EM Fixed-Income Markets Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 60EM Fixed-Income Markets EM Currencies Are Cheap Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents   A Peak In Copper And Iron Ore Prices Copper and iron ore prices  are vulnerable going into 2021 due to various factors elaborated in our two recent in-depth special reports. Chart 61A Peak In Copper And Iron Ore Prices Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 62A Peak In Copper And Iron Ore Prices Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 63A Peak In Copper And Iron Ore Prices Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents   Five High-Conviction Strategies / Trades Long global value / short Chinese value stocks; Stay neutral on EM versus DM equities; Continue receiving select EM 10-year swap rates (please refer page 21); Stay short a basket of high-beta EM currencies versus an equal-weighted basket of the euro, CHF and JPY; Stay long EM consumer staples / short EM bank stocks. Chart 64Five High-Conviction Strategies/Trades Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 65Five High-Conviction Strategies/Trades Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 66Five High-Conviction Strategies/Trades Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Chart 67Five High-Conviction Strategies/Trades Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents Charts That Matter: Crosscurrents   Footnotes Equities Recommendations Currencies, Credit And Fixed-Income Recommendations

Feature Feature ChartEconomies Have Already Snapped Back Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views In this final report of a tumultuous 2020, we present our key views for 2021 in the form of ten questions and answers during a recent conversation with a client. 1.  Let’s begin with a blunt question. How can your views ever anticipate a shock such as this year’s once-in-a-century pandemic? Nobody can predict when, where, or how a shock will come. But what we can, and should, always do is gauge the fragility of the market to an incoming shock, whatever that unknown shock might be. Before the pandemic struck, both our 2020 key views and our first report of this year, Markets Are Fractally Fragile, pointed out that a fragile market was vulnerable to “the tiniest of straws that could break its back.” Right now, markets are close to a similar point of fragility. 2.   What is the specific source of market fragility right now? The fragility is that tech stock valuations have become hyper-dependent on low bond yields in a so-called ‘rational bubble’. Specifically, the (earnings) yield premium on tech stocks versus the 10-year bond yield is at its 2.5 percent lower threshold that has signalled four previous fragilities in February 2018, October 2018, April 2019, and January 2020 (Chart I-2). Chart I-2Tech Stock Valuations Are Fragile Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views These previous fragilities resulted in an exhaustion, or worse, a correction, in tech stocks, and by extension in the overall market. The upshot is that a meaningful rise in bond yields could once again undermine the stock market. 3.   But I thought that higher bond yields were good for stocks, if the higher bond yields imply that growth is accelerating? Not necessarily. Yes, a stock price is proportional to growth, but it is also inversely proportional to the discount rate, which is the required return that investors demand to hold it. If the discount rate increases by more than growth, then the stock price will fall, not rise. The discount rate equals the bond yield plus the equity risk premium. At ultra-low yields, the two components move together. This is because when the bond yield declines towards its lower bound, the bond price carries less upside versus downside and thereby more risk. Meaning that in relative terms, equities require a smaller risk premium. When bond yields increase, the opposite is true – both the bond yield and the equity risk premium rise together (Chart I-3). Chart I-3AUltra-Low Bond Yields Have Created The Greatest Asset-Price Inflation Of All Time Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Chart I-3BUltra-Low Bond Yields Have Created The Greatest Asset-Price Inflation Of All Time Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views     The result is that growth would have to increase very sharply to counter the large rise in the bond yield plus equity risk premium. 4.   But 2021-22 are likely to be years of very strong growth just like the post-recession years 2009-10, right? Wrong. You see, after a slump the strongest growth occurs in the sharp snapback of lost output, and most of this sharp snapback has already happened. In 2008-09, the US and German economies shrank for four quarters. It then took five quarters of strong growth to recover two-thirds of this lost output. But in 2020, everything has happened at quintuple-speed. It has taken just one quarter to recover two-thirds of the lost output, and by the end of this year US GDP will be almost back to its pre-pandemic level (Feature Chart and Chart I-4). Chart I-4Economies Have Already Snapped Back Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views This is because we quickly realised that even in a full-scale pandemic, 90 percent of economic activity can continue with face masks and social distancing. The activities that are most disrupted – retail, hospitality, and transport – account for just 10 percent of output. Meanwhile, China, which on some measures is the world’s largest economy, is already ‘back to normal’ because its effective track-and-trace system has circumvented the need for face masks and social distancing. The upshot is that, as far as global economic output is concerned, most of the powerful snapback has already happened. 5.   But if economic output has largely recovered, why does it not feel like it has? For three reasons. First, the most disrupted activities comprise so-called ‘social consumption’ such as going to bars and restaurants, having friends round for dinner, and going on holiday. In other words, all the fun things in life. Although these activities account for just 10 percent of economic output, they likely account for a much bigger proportion of our happiness. Second, we are producing and consuming the 90 percent of undisrupted output differently. For example, working from home, doing business meetings virtually, and doing our shopping on-line. Crucially, much of this ‘new-normal’ is here to stay even when the pandemic ends. Third, although the disrupted activities account for just 10 percent of output, they account for a very significant 25 percent of all jobs. Meaning that the jobs market has not snapped back to the same extent as output. Indeed, permanent unemployment continues to rise (Chart I-5). Chart I-5Permanent Unemployment Continues To Rise Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Alas, the jobs market will take a long time to fully recover even when the pandemic ends. This is because the new-normal way of producing and consuming will permanently scar traditionally high-employment sectors such as retail and hospitality. Constituting a major economic fragility in the new-normal (Table I-1). Table I-1Retail And Hospitality Employ 25 Percent Of All Workers Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views 6.   All of which means inflation stays below the 2 percent target, right? Right. But your question should be framed differently. You see, inflation is a non-linear system with two states: price stability and price instability. You can shift an economy between these two states, but you cannot hit an arbitrary target like 2 percent, 3 percent, or 5 percent. So, your question should be, will developed economies stay in the state of price stability? And the answer is yes, because it is the much better state to be in, and it took decades of blood, sweat and tears to achieve. Nevertheless, any government can flip its economy into the state of price instability if it so desires. Just look at Turkey. A warning sign is that the central bank loses its independence, enabling it to monetise government debt. That’s the warning sign to look out for. 7.   Talking of fragility in a new-normal, hasn’t the double whammy of Brexit and the pandemic weakened the EU? No, quite the contrary. As Jean Monnet, a founding father of the EU, said: “Europe will be forged in crises.” And he was right. Each of the last three crises has strengthened the EU’s architecture. The euro debt crisis added the missing ‘lender of last resort to sovereigns’ weapon into the ECB armoury – a weapon whose mere presence means it has never had to be used. Brexit removed the most troublesome member from the EU fold, as well as demonstrating how costly it is to exit. And the pandemic has allowed the EU to smash two major taboos: explicit fiscal transfers across countries, and the large-scale issuance of common EU bonds. All of which means that the yield spreads on euro area ‘periphery’ bonds over Germany and France will continue to tighten, and ultimately disappear altogether (Chart I-6). Chart I-6The Yield Spread On Euro Periphery Bonds Will Vanish Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views 8.   What about the prospects for the UK outside the EU? Like all divorces, Brexit is a gain of self-determination for a loss of wealth. Hence, since the Brexit vote in 2016, the UK economy has flipped from outperformer to underperformer (Chart I-7). Chart I-7The UK Economy Has Flipped From Outperformer To Underperformer Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views The UK economy will continue to underperform until it forges a fresh purpose and role as a newfound singleton on the world stage. 9.   Turning to investments, will the 2020 losers become the 2021 winners, and vice-versa? No, that’s an over-simplification. For example, for bonds to lose their 2020 winnings, yields would have to back up a lot. But as we’ve already discussed, that would burst the ‘rational bubble’ in tech stocks, undermine the stock market, and put renewed downward pressure on bond yields. In which case, banks will struggle to sustain any outperformance (Chart I-8). Meaning that ‘value’ will struggle to sustain any outperformance. Hence, a much smarter strategy is to switch between winners and losers within ‘growth’ and within ‘value’. Specifically, overweight healthcare versus tech, and overweight utilities versus banks. Chart I-8Bank Relative Performance Tracks The Bond Yield Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Of course, sector allocations always carry implications for regional and country equity allocation. The main implications are to overweight Europe versus Emerging Markets (Chart I-9), and to overweight Developed Markets versus Emerging Markets. Chart I-9Europe Vs. EM = Healthcare Vs. Tech Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views 10. Finally, what about your long-term recommendations? This brings us full circle to the first question. While we could not predict the pandemic, all our four mega-themes for the 2020s proved to be successful, and in some cases very successful. A hypersensitivity to higher interest rates. Overweight equities versus bonds. Europe conquers its disintegration forces. Overweight European currencies. Non-China exposed investments outperform. Underweight materials and resources. The rise of blockchain and alternative energy. Overweight alternative energy, underweight oil and gas, and underweight financials. Given their long-term nature, these structural recommendations are as appropriate today as they were a year ago. And with that, it is time to sign off on a tumultuous 2020 and usher in 2021, a year which we define as Fragility In A New-Normal. We wish you and your families a safe and healthy holiday season, and a less tumultuous 2021. Fractal Trading System* This week’s recommended trade is to go long US utilities (XLU) versus US materials (XLB). Set the profit target and symmetrical stop-loss at 5.7 percent. In other trades, short European retail (EXH8) versus the market (STOXX) achieved its 4.2 percent profit target at which it was closed. The rolling 12-month win ratio now stands at 61 percent. Chart I-10 Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views When the fractal dimension approaches the lower limit after an investment has been in an established trend it is a potential trigger for a liquidity-triggered trend reversal. Therefore, open a countertrend position. The profit target is a one-third reversal of the preceding 13-week move. Apply a symmetrical stop-loss. Close the position at the profit target or stop-loss. Otherwise close the position after 13 weeks. * For more details please see the European Investment Strategy Special Report “Fractals, Liquidity & A Trading Model,” dated   December 11, 2014, available at eis.bcaresearch.com.   Dhaval Joshi Chief European Investment Strategist dhaval@bcaresearch.com Fractal Trading System   Cyclical Recommendations Structural Recommendations Closed Fractal Trades Trades Closed Trades Asset Performance Currency & Bond Equity Sector Country Equity Indicators Bond Yields Chart II-1Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Chart II-2Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Chart II-3Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Chart II-4Indicators To Watch - Bond Yields Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views   Interest Rate Chart II-5Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Chart II-6Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Chart II-7Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Chart II-8Indicators To Watch - Interest Rate Expectations Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views Fragility In A New-Normal: 2021 Key Views  

Highlights Global growth will accelerate over the course of 2021 as COVID-19 vaccines are distributed and economic confidence improves in response. Longer-term global bond yields see some upward pressure as growth picks up, but global real yields will stay negative with on-hold central banks actively seeking an inflation overshoot. Maintain below-benchmark overall global duration exposure, and position for steeper government bond yield curves and wider inflation breakevens. The rise in global bond yields we anticipate will be relatively moderate, with US Treasury yields rising the most. Underweight the US in global bond portfolios, and favor countries where yields have a lower sensitivity to rising US yields (core Europe, Japan, UK). Also overweight Peripheral European debt given supportive monetary and fiscal policies that are helping to reduce credit risk (Italy, Spain, Portugal). The US dollar will remain soft in 2021, providing an additional reflationary impulse to the global economy. Overweight global inflation-linked bonds versus nominal government debt. Lower-quality global credit should outperform against a backdrop that will prove positive for risk assets: easy money policies, improving growth momentum and a reduction in virus-related uncertainty. Upgrade US high-yield to overweight through higher allocations to lower rated credit tiers, while downgrading US investment grade, where valuations are far less compelling, to neutral. Favor US corporates versus euro area equivalents, of all credit quality, based off less attractive euro area spread valuations. Within US$-denominated emerging market debt, favor corporates over sovereigns. Feature Dear Client, This report, detailing our global fixed income investment outlook for next year, will be our last for 2020. Please join me for a webcast this coming Friday, December 18 at 10:00 AM EST (3:00 PM GMT, 4:00 PM CET, 11:00 PM HKT) where I will discuss the outlook followed by a Q&A session. Best wishes for a very safe, healthy and prosperous 2021. We’ve all earned that after a difficult 2020 that none of us will soon forget. Rob Robis, Chief Global Fixed Income Strategist BCA Research’s Outlook 2021 report, “A Brave New World”, outlining the main investment themes for next year based on the collective wisdom of our strategists, was sent to all clients in late November.1 In this report, we discuss the broad implications of those themes for the direction of global fixed income markets in 2021. In a follow-up report to be published in the first week of the New Year, we will translate those themes into specific recommended allocations and weightings within our model bond portfolio framework. A Summary Of The 2021 BCA Outlook The tone of the BCA 2021 Outlook was generally positive, with conclusions that are supportive for the outperformance of risk assets relative to safe havens like government bonds (Chart 1). Chart 1How To Play Recovery & Reflation In 2021 2021 Key Views: Vaccination, Reflation, Rotation 2021 Key Views: Vaccination, Reflation, Rotation Global growth will strengthen over the course of next year, after an initial soft patch related to the late-2020 COVID-19 economic restrictions in Europe and the US. Economic confidence will improve as the COVID-19 vaccines become more widely distributed, at a time of ongoing substantial monetary and fiscal stimulus in most important countries. A major release of pent-up demand is likely, fueled by the surge in private sector savings in the US and Europe after households and businesses cut back on spending because of the pandemic. The lingering impact of China’s substantial fiscal and credit stimulus in 2020 will still be felt throughout the world for most of 2021, even with Chinese authorities likely to begin curtailing the expansion of credit around mid-year. The tremendous amount of global spare capacity created by the virus and associated economic restrictions will keep inflation subdued in most countries. Thus, both monetary and fiscal policymakers will be under no pressure to pre-emptively tighten policy. The pace of monetary/fiscal stimulus will inevitably slow on a rate-of-change basis after the massive ramp up of government spending, income support, loan guarantees and central bank asset purchases. However, policymakers are expected to pull any and all of those levers once again in the event of a severe pullback in economic growth or a major bout of financial market turbulence. After a wild 2020 in a US election year, geopolitical uncertainty is expected to recede a bit next year. Although US-China tensions will remain elevated even under the incoming Biden administration, European politics are expected to be a tailwind for financial markets. A UK-EU Brexit deal is expected to be reached given economic realities, increased fiscal cooperation within the EU will support fiscally weaker countries like Italy, and the threat of the US imposing tariffs on Europe will disappear after Donald Trump leaves office. Our Four Main Key Views For Global Fixed Income Markets In 2021 The following are the main implications for global fixed income investment strategy based off the conclusions from the 2020 BCA Outlook: Key View #1: Maintain below-benchmark overall global duration exposure, and position for steeper government bond yield curves and wider inflation breakevens. Chart 2COVID-19 Lockdowns Will Not Last Forever COVID-19 Lockdowns Will Not Last Forever COVID-19 Lockdowns Will Not Last Forever COVID-19 was the elephant in the room for financial markets in 2020, influencing sentiment whenever cases flared up or subsided. Yet the impact diminished steadily since the first wave of the virus stretched beyond China in the spring. The broad span of global risk assets – equities, corporate credit, industrial commodities – has performed very well during the current, and much larger, surge in cases occurring in the US and Europe. One big reason for this is that investors now understand that lockdowns, and the associated drag on economic growth, do not last forever. In addition, investors know that policymakers in most countries will react to any sharp downturn in economic confidence with more fiscal and monetary stimulus to help offset the negative growth impact of the lockdowns. In Europe, many European governments enacted harsh national lockdowns in a bid to “flatten the curve” during the latest surge. This has helped successfully reduce the growth rate of new cases and hospitalizations (Chart 2). This will eventually lead to an easing of restrictions, and a recovery in economic activity, in early 2021. While US case numbers are also surging, the response by governments has been much less widespread, and severe, compared to Europe. There is little political appetite (even with a new president) for another wave of harsh restrictions along the lines of what took place last spring. Some slowing of economic activity is inevitable because of increased regional restrictions in large states like California and New York, as is already evident in some late-2020 data. However, any downturn should not be expected to last long with the growth rate of US COVID-19 hospitalizations having already peaked. The big game-changer, of course, is the introduction of COVID-19 vaccines which have already begun to be distributed in the UK and US. While there are uncertainties related to the operational logistics of a worldwide vaccine rollout, including whether enough people will voluntarily choose to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity on a global scale, the very high announced efficacy levels of the various vaccines mean that an end of the pandemic is now achievable. Investors should see through the current surge in COVID-19 cases, and any short-term hiccup in economic growth, and focus on the bigger picture of the introduction of the vaccine and the positive implications for global economic confidence in 2021. Growth has already been holding up well in the US and China in the final months of 2020, with both manufacturing and services PMIs remaining solidly above the 50 line indicating expanding activity. As the euro area lockdowns begun to ease up, growth there will catch up, which already appears to be underway with the sharp uptick in the December PMI data (Chart 3). Those three regions account for one-half of worldwide GDP, so that is already a solid footing for global growth entering 2021. A sustained improvement in the pace of global economic activity is important, as it is becoming increasingly harder for governments to sustain the extreme levels of policy stimulus delivered in 2020. In China, policymakers are starting to rotate their focus away from aggressive stimulus and fighting deflation back to the cautious risk management approach to credit expansion that was in place prior to COVID-19. BCA Research’s China strategists expect the latest Chinese credit cycle to peak by mid-2021, with the credit impulse set to decline in the second half of the year (Chart 4). Combined with the tightening of monetary conditions through a strengthening yuan and higher local interest rates, some slowing of Chinese growth is inevitable. Although given the lags between stimulus and growth, the impact is more likely to be felt toward year-end and into 2022 – good news for much of the global economy that still relies heavily on exporting to China as an engine of growth. Chart 3A Growth Recovery Without Inflation A Growth Recovery Without Inflation A Growth Recovery Without Inflation Chart 4China Stimulus Will Peak Out By Mid-2021 China Stimulus Will Peak Out By Mid-2021 China Stimulus Will Peak Out By Mid-2021 Overall global fiscal policy is on track to be less supportive in 2021. The latest estimates from the IMF show that the “fiscal thrust”, or the change in the cyclically-adjusted primary budget balance relative to potential GDP, in most developed economies will turn negative next year (Charts 5A and 5B). Such a swing is inevitable given the sheer magnitudes of the fiscal stimulus measures first introduced to combat the economic damage from COVID-19 that will not be repeated in 2021. By the same token, less fiscal stimulus will be necessary if overall global growth improves, especially if vaccines can be successfully distributed to much of the world. Chart 5ANegative Fiscal Thrust In 2021 … Negative Fiscal Thrust In 2021 ... Negative Fiscal Thrust In 2021 ... Chart 5B… But Governments Will Spend More If Needed ... But Governments Will Spend More If Needed ... But Governments Will Spend More If Needed What does all this mean for global government bond yields? We believe that it signals a continuation of the trends seen towards the end of 2020 – a slow grind higher in longer-term yields, led by better growth and rising inflation expectations, but without any need to discount a move to tighter monetary policy because of a sustained overshoot of realized inflation. The current economic projections of the Fed, ECB, Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Canada (BoC) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) all show that policymakers there expect unemployment rates to remain above pre-pandemic levels to at least 2023 (Chart 6). At the same time, central banks are also projecting inflation to be below their target levels/ranges over that same period. In response, the forward guidance from these central banks has been very dovish, with policy interest rates expected to remain at current levels at or near 0% for at least the next two to three years. Interest rate markets have taken the hint, with a very low expected path for rates over the next few years discounted in overnight index swap curves. Chart 6Central Banks Projecting A Slow Return To Full Employment 2021 Key Views: Vaccination, Reflation, Rotation 2021 Key Views: Vaccination, Reflation, Rotation Chart 7Markets Expect Years Of Negative Real Policy Rates Markets Expect Years Of Negative Real Policy Rates Markets Expect Years Of Negative Real Policy Rates The implication of this is that central banks are projecting a sustained, multi-year period where policy rates will remain below forecasted inflation (Chart 7). Or put more simply, central banks are consistently signaling that negative real interest rates will persist for a long time. This means that one of the most oft-discussed “oddities” of global bond markets in 2020 - the persistence of negative real long term bond yields in most major economies, most notably in the US Treasury market, even as inflation expectations increase – is unlikely to disappear in 2021. Those negative real yields reflect, to a large part, the expectation that real global policy rates will stay persistently negative (Chart 8). At some point in 2021, markets could challenge this dovish guidance from central banks that could temporarily push up both future interest rate expectations and longer-term real yields, especially in the US. However, it is more likely that central banks will not validate that move higher in yields for fears of pre-emptively short-circuiting an economic recovery. Such a hawkish shift could be more plausibly delivered in 2022 at the earliest, with the Fed the most likely candidate to change its guidance. Summing up all of the above points with regards to our recommendations on overall management of government bond portfolios, we arrive at the following conclusions (Chart 9): Chart 8Rising Inflation Breakevens With Stable Negative Real Yields Rising Inflation Breakevens With Stable Negative Real Yields Rising Inflation Breakevens With Stable Negative Real Yields Chart 9Moderately Higher Global Bond Yields In 2021 Moderately Higher Global Bond Yields In 2021 Moderately Higher Global Bond Yields In 2021 Duration exposure should be set below-benchmark. Our forward-looking Duration Indicator, comprised of leading economic indicators and economic expectations data, is strongly signaling that global yields should head higher in 2021. Position for a bearish steepening of yield curves. This will be driven more by rising longer-term inflation expectations, as the short-ends of yield curves will remain anchored by dovish on-hold central banks. Key View #2: Underweight the US in global bond portfolios, and favor countries where yields have a lower sensitivity to rising US yields Moving beyond the overall global duration view, there are significant country allocation decisions that derive from our outlook for 2021. First and foremost, we recommend underweighting US Treasuries in global bond portfolios, as we anticipate the biggest increase in developed market bond yields next year to occur in the US. We expect the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to rise to the 1.25% to 1.5% range sometime in 2021. This move will come mostly through higher inflation expectations. The 10-year TIPS breakeven inflation rate is expected to reach the 2.3-2.5% range that we have long considered to be consistent with the market pricing in the Fed sustainably achieving its 2% inflation goal. Any additional Treasury yield increases beyond our 2021 forecast range would require the Fed to shift to a more hawkish stance signaling future rate hikes. With the Fed now operating with an Average Inflation Target framework, allowing for temporary overshoots of inflation after periods when inflation was below the Fed’s 2% target, the hurdle for such a shift in Fed guidance is much higher than in previous years. The Fed has also changed the nature of its forward guidance compared to years past, signaling that any future monetary tightening will only occur once actual inflation has sustainably returned to the 2% target. That means that the Fed will no longer pre-emptively choose to hike rates on merely a forecast of higher inflation – it will first need to see a sustained period of higher inflation materialize before considering any tightening. Thus, any move beyond our expected 1.25% to 1.5% range on US Treasuries would require a hawkish signal by the Fed that it intends to begin removing monetary accommodation through rate hikes. Under the Average Inflation Target framework, that will not happen in 2021 but could happen the following year if inflation stays at or above 2% over the course of next year. Turning to other countries, we recommend favoring bond markets with a lower historical “yield beta” to US Treasuries. In other words, we prefer overweighting counties where government bond yields are typically less correlated to changes in Treasury yields. We show those historical yield betas, using 10-year yields, in Chart 10. Importantly, the betas are calculated only for periods when Treasury yields are moving higher. We call this “upside beta”, which is a useful tool to identify which bond markets are more sensitive to selloffs in the US Treasury market. Chart 10Favor Lower Beta Government Bond Markets In 2021 Favor Lower Beta Government Bond Markets In 2021 Favor Lower Beta Government Bond Markets In 2021 The highest “upside beta” countries among the major developed markets are Australia, Canada and New Zealand, while the lowest “upside beta” countries are Germany, France and Japan. The UK is in the middle of those two groupings, although the trend over the past few years suggests that it is transitioning from a high-beta to low-beta country. Note that for all countries shown, the upside yield betas are below one, indicating that no market should be expected to see a bigger rise in yields than the US. Strictly based on our forecast of higher Treasury yields and calculated yield betas, we would recommend more overweight allocations to markets in the lower-beta group and more underweight allocations to the higher-beta group. We are comfortable recommending overweights to the lower-beta group of Germany, France, Japan and the UK. Although among the higher-beta group, we are reluctant to recommend underweighting all three countries because of the policy choices of their central banks. The RBA, BoC and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have all enacted aggressively large quantitative easing (QE) programs in 2020 as a way to provide additional monetary stimulus after cutting policy rates to near-0%. The BoC stands out as being extremely aggressive on QE with its balance sheet expanding more than three-fold on a year-over-year basis (Chart 11). Chart 11More Divergence In The Pace Of Global QE More Divergence In The Pace Of Global QE More Divergence In The Pace Of Global QE None of these three central banks has discussed slowing the pace of purchases anytime soon. In the case of the RBA and RBNZ, they have gone as far as signaling the role of QE in dampening their bond yields to help stem the appreciation of their currencies. They may have limited success in driving down yields further, however. Measures of bond valuation like the term premium, which typically move lower when QE accelerates, have bottomed out across the developed markets even as central banks have absorbed a greater share of the stock of government debt in 2020 (Chart 12). Yet even if QE can no longer drive yields lower, it can limit how much yields can increase when under cyclical upward pressure. For this reason, we do not expect government bond yields in Australia, Canada or New Zealand to behave in line their historical higher yield beta that would make them clear underweight candidates in a period of rising US Treasury yields, as we expect. Net-net, we recommend that investors focus underweights solely on US Treasuries within global government bond portfolios. This suggests that yield spreads between Treasuries and other bond markets should continue to widen, as has been the case over the final few months of 2020 (Chart 13). We recommend neutral allocations to Australia, Canada and New Zealand, while overweighting core Europe, Japan and the UK. Chart 12More QE Is Less Impactful In Pushing Down Bond Yields More QE Is Less Impactful In Pushing Down Bond Yields More QE Is Less Impactful In Pushing Down Bond Yields Chart 13US Treasuries Will Continue To Underperform In 2021 US Treasuries Will Continue To Underperform In 2021 US Treasuries Will Continue To Underperform In 2021 We also are maintaining our overweight recommendation on Italian and Spanish government debt, which was one of our most successful calls of 2020. We view those markets more as a credit spread story versus core Europe, rather than a directional yield instrument like US Treasuries or German Bunds. On that basis, the spread of Italian and Spanish yields versus German yields has room to compress even further, as both are strongly supported by ECB bond purchases. Also, the introduction of the European Union’s €750bn Recovery Fund is a strong signal of greater fiscal co-operation within Europe – another important factor that has helped reduce the risk premium (credit spread) on Italy and Spain. When looking at the yields currently on offer in the developed world, Italy and Spain offer very attractive yields in a global low-yield environment (Table 1). Stay overweight. Table 1Developed Market Bond Yields, Both Unhedged & Hedged Into USD 2021 Key Views: Vaccination, Reflation, Rotation 2021 Key Views: Vaccination, Reflation, Rotation Key View #3: Overweight global inflation-linked bonds versus nominal government debt We have discussed the importance of rising inflation expectations as a core driver of the rise in global bond yields that we expect in 2021. This has been in the context of improving global growth, reduced spare economic capacity and central banks staying very dovish, all of which are necessary ingredients to boost depressed inflation expectations. A weaker US dollar will also play a significant role in that boost to inflation expectations and bond yields that we expect next year. The decline in the greenback seen in the latter half of 2020 has been driven by the typical factors (Chart 14): Chart 14More Negatives Than Positives For The USD More Negatives Than Positives For The USD More Negatives Than Positives For The USD The Fed’s aggressive rate cuts, dating back to 2019, have reduced much of the relative interest rate attractiveness of the US dollar Accelerating global growth after the sharp worldwide plunge in growth in Q2/2020 benefitted non-US economies more, eliciting a standard decline in the “anti-growth” US dollar Uncertainty and risk aversion declined after the initial COVID-19 shock at the start of 2020, easing the safe haven demand for dollars. Looking ahead, rate differentials continue to point to additional downward pressure on the US dollar, even with the moderate rise in longer-term US Treasury yields that we expect next year. Risk aversion and uncertainty should also decline in a dollar-bearish fashion with the US presidential election behind us and the COVID-19 vaccine ahead of us. Improving global growth should also be supportive of more dollar weakness, especially as Europe recovers from the current lockdown-driven slowdown. A weaker US dollar is a key variable to trigger faster global inflation through the link between the currency and global traded goods prices. On a rate-of-change basis, a weakening US dollar has a strong negative correlation to the growth rate of world export prices and commodity prices (Chart 15). Thus, more USD weakness in 2021 will lift realized global inflation through commodities and traded goods prices, especially against a backdrop of faster global growth. Chart 15Global Reflation Through A Weaker USD Global Reflation Through A Weaker USD Global Reflation Through A Weaker USD Chart 16Stay Overweight Global Inflation-Linked Bonds In 2021 Stay Overweight Global Inflation-Linked Bonds In 2021 Stay Overweight Global Inflation-Linked Bonds In 2021 BCA Research’s commodity strategists expect oil prices to move higher next year on the back of an improving demand/supply balance, with the benchmark Brent price of oil averaging $63/bbl over the course of 2021. A weaker USD could provide additional upside to that forecast, giving a further lift to realized inflation rates around the world. To position for this boost to inflation via a weaker dollar and rising commodity prices, we recommend that fixed-income investors continue holding a core allocation to inflation-linked bonds versus nominal government debt. We have maintained that recommendation since last spring after the collapse of global breakeven inflation rates that left breakevens very undervalued according to our fair value models (Chart 16).2 The valuation case is far less compelling now after the steady climb in breakevens over the latter half of 2020, with only French and Japan breakevens below fair value. However, given our expected backdrop of improving global growth and highly accommodative global monetary policy, breakevens are likely to continue to climb to more expensive levels. Our preferred allocations are to US and French inflation-linked bonds, while we would be cautious on Australian inflation-linked bonds which appear extremely overvalued on our models. Key View #4: Within an overweight allocation to global corporate debt, overweight US high-yield versus US investment grade and favor all US corporates versus euro area equivalents. Global corporate bond markets have enjoyed a spectacular rally over the final three quarters of 2020 after the huge pandemic related selloff of last February and March. The benchmark index yields for investment grade corporates in the US, euro area and UK have all fallen back below pre-COVID levels, while index yields for high-yield in the same three regions are back at the pre-COVID lows (Chart 17). The story is similar on a credit spread basis. The benchmark index option-adjusted spread (OAS) for investment grade corporates is only 11bps away from the pre-COVID low in the US and 4bps from the pre-COVID low in the euro area, with the UK spread now slightly below the pre-pandemic low (Chart 18). High-yield spreads still have some more room to compress with US, euro area and UK junk index spreads 67bps, 68bps and 110bps above the pre-pandemic low, respectively. Chart 17Corporate Bond Yields Falling To New Lows Corporate Bond Yields Falling To New Lows Corporate Bond Yields Falling To New Lows Chart 18Corporate Bond Spreads Approaching Pre-COVID Lows Corporate Bond Spreads Approaching Pre-COVID Lows Corporate Bond Spreads Approaching Pre-COVID Lows Supportive monetary policy has played a huge role in the global credit rally. Central banks have used their balance sheets aggressively to help ease financial conditions, including the direct buying of corporate bonds by the Fed, ECB and BoE. Looking ahead to 2021, it is clear that credit markets are still benefitting from loose monetary policy while also enjoying a tailwind from better global growth. The global high-yield default rate is rolling over and the US default rate has clearly peaked (Chart 19). There is now less of a need for direct buying of corporates by central banks with credit markets seeing major investor inflows with a robust pace of corporate bond issuance. Corporate bond markets can now walk on their own with the support of central bank crutches. This means that investors should pivot away from the more cautious “buy what the central banks are buying” approach that we had advocated for much of 2020 and be more selectively aggressive. First and foremost, that means increasing allocations to US high-yield corporate debt, both out of US investment grade and euro area corporates. Default-adjusted spreads in the US, which measure the high-yield index OAS net of realized default losses, will look far more attractive as the US default rate peaks (Chart 20). If the US default rate moves back below 5% over the next year from the current 8% rate, the US default-adjusted spread will climb back into positive territory. This will compare more favorably to the default-adjusted spread for euro area high-yield, which has been higher because the euro area default rate did not suffer a major spike this year despite the sharp downturn in euro area growth back in the spring. Chart 19Easy Money Policies Supporting Global Credit Easy Money Policies Supporting Global Credit Easy Money Policies Supporting Global Credit Chart 20High-Yield Looks More Attractive With Fewer Defaults In 2021 High-Yield Looks More Attractive With Fewer Defaults In 2021 High-Yield Looks More Attractive With Fewer Defaults In 2021 US high-yield also looks most attractive using our preferred metric of pure spread valuation, the 12-month breakeven spread. This measures the amount of spread widening that must occur over a one year period for corporate debt to have the same return as a duration-matched position in government bonds. We compare this “spread cushion” to its own history in a percentile ranking to determine if spreads look relatively attractive. Within US corporate debt, the 12-month breakeven spread for investment grade credit is down to the 5th percentile, suggesting virtually no room for additional spread tightening (Chart 21). For US high-yield credit, the 12-month breakeven spread is still relatively elevated at the 60th percentile level, suggesting more room for spread compression. Within euro area corporates, the 12-month breakeven percentile rankings for investment grade and high-yield are at the 27th and 28th percentile, respectively, suggesting a more limited scope for spread compression compared to US high-yield (Chart 22). Chart 21Move Down In Quality Within US Corporates Move Down In Quality Within US Corporates Move Down In Quality Within US Corporates Chart 22No Compelling Value In Euro Area Corporates No Compelling Value In Euro Area Corporates No Compelling Value In Euro Area Corporates When comparing the 12-month breakeven spreads of all corporate debt in the US, euro area and UK, broken down by credit tier, to a more pure measure of spread risk - duration times spread – the attractiveness of lower-rated US junk bonds is most compelling (Chart 23). In particular, US B-rated and Caa-rated junk spreads offer very high 12-month breakeven spreads relative to spread risk. Chart 23Comparing Value (Breakeven Spreads) With Risk (Duration Times Spread) 2021 Key Views: Vaccination, Reflation, Rotation 2021 Key Views: Vaccination, Reflation, Rotation Adding it all up, it is clear that lower-rated US high-yield debt offers an attractive value proposition for 2021. This is especially true given the positive global growth and monetary policy backdrop. The annual growth rate of the combined balance sheets of the Fed, ECB, BoE and Bank of Japan has been an excellent leading indicator of the excess return of US high-yield US Treasuries (Chart 24). The surge in balance sheet growth of 2020 is pointing to strong US high-yield bond performance versus Treasuries, and an outperformance of lower-rated US high-yield, in 2021. Chart 24Upgrade US High-Yield To Overweight Upgrade US High-Yield To Overweight Upgrade US High-Yield To Overweight Chart 25Within EM USD Credit, Favor Corporates Over Sovereigns Within EM USD Credit, Favor Corporates Over Sovereigns Within EM USD Credit, Favor Corporates Over Sovereigns This leads us to shift to an overweight stance on US high-yield, while downgrading US investment grade to neutral, as our key global spread product recommendation for 2020. Within other corporate credit markets, we recommend only a neutral allocation to euro area corporate credit, given the relatively less attractive valuations. Finally, within the emerging market US dollar denominated universe, we continue to recommend an overweight stance on corporates versus sovereigns, as the former will benefit more in 2021 from the lagged effect of Chinese credit stimulus and central bank balance sheet expansion in 2020 (Chart 25).   Robert Robis, CFA Chief Fixed Income Strategist rrobis@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1 Please see BCA Research The Bank Credit Analyst, "Outlook 2021: A Brave New World", dated November 30, 2020, available at bca.bcaresearch.com. 2 Our breakeven inflation models use the growth rate of oil prices in local currency terms and a long-term moving average of realized inflation as the inputs. Recommendations Spread Product Tactical Trades Yields & Returns Global Bond Yields Historical Returns

Highlights Below-Benchmark Portfolio Duration: The economic recovery will continue (and even accelerate) in 2021. Meanwhile, the Fed’s forward interest rate guidance is already as dovish as it will get. Keep portfolio duration below-benchmark in 2021, targeting a level of 1.25% to 1.5% for the 10-year Treasury yield.  Overweight TIPS Versus Nominal Treasuries: We remain overweight TIPS versus nominal Treasuries for the time being but are actively looking for an opportunity to get tactically underweight. This opportunity could emerge in the first half of 2021 when core and trimmed mean inflation re-converge and when the 10-year TIPS breakeven inflation rate looks expensive on our model.  Own Nominal Yield Curve Steepeners, Real Yield Curve Steepeners And Inflation Curve Flatteners: The nominal yield curve will continue to trade directionally with yields. Therefore, higher yields will coincide with a steeper nominal curve in 2021. Rising inflation and the Fed’s new Average Inflation Target both argue for a flatter inflation curve in 2021. We also recommend a real yield curve steepener as a high octane play on both a steeper nominal curve and flatter inflation curve. Overweight Spread Product Versus Treasuries: We see the economy as entering what we call “Phase 1” of the economic cycle in 2021, an environment of above-trend growth, low inflation and accommodative monetary policy. This is an environment where spread product typically performs very well relative to Treasuries. Move Down In Quality Within Corporates: Investment grade corporates will outperform Treasuries in 2021, but the potential for further spread compression is limited. Junk spreads have more room to tighten, and the Ba credit tier looks particularly attractive from a risk/reward perspective A Maximum Overweight Allocation To Municipal Bonds: Tax-exempt municipal bonds offer the best opportunity in the US fixed income space. Investors should adopt a maximum overweight allocation, and in particular, they should shift some allocation out of investment grade corporates and into Munis with the same credit rating and duration, but with a greater after-tax yield. Feature BCA published its 2021 Outlook on November 30. That report lays out the main macroeconomic themes that our strategists see driving markets next year. This Special Report explains how investors can profit from those themes in US fixed income markets. Specifically, we offer six key US fixed income views for 2021. This report is limited to the six key investment views listed on page 1, and only discusses Fed policy in the context of how it influences those views. Next week we will publish a more comprehensive “Fed In 2021” report that will delve into our outlook for the Fed next year. Outlook Summary First, a brief summary of the main economic views presented in BCA’s 2021 Outlook:1 The third wave of COVID infections will be a drag on economic activity in 2020 Q4 and 2021 Q1, but inventory re-stocking and the large build-up of household savings will prevent the US economy from falling into a double-dip recession. Ultimately, the vaccine roll-out will cause US GDP to grow well above trend in 2021. Inflation is likely to spike in the first half of 2021 due to base effects and the re-opening of some service sectors that were shuttered during the pandemic. But this initial surge will dissipate in the second half of the year. The wide output gap that opened in 2020 will persist in 2021 and will prevent a broad-based acceleration in consumer prices. The Fed’s forward interest rate guidance is as dovish as it will get. A large portion of the Outlook is devoted to considering longer-run economic and political trends that were accelerated by the global policy response to COVID-19. Specifically, rising populism, heavier corporate regulation and a greater appetite for MMT-like taxing and spending policies. The ultimate outcome of these trends will be significantly higher inflation, on the order of 3% to 5%, in the second half of the decade. Key View #1: Below-Benchmark Portfolio Duration Chart 1Treasury Yields In 2020 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income The economic recovery will continue (and even accelerate) in 2021. Meanwhile, the Fed’s forward interest rate guidance is already as dovish as it will get. Keep portfolio duration below-benchmark in 2021, targeting a level of 1.25% to 1.5% for the 10-year Treasury yield. Our recommendation to maintain below-benchmark portfolio duration rests on two key pillars. The first is BCA’s view that the economic recovery will continue in 2021 and will even accelerate once enough of the population has received the COVID vaccine. The second pillar is our view that the Federal Reserve’s reaction function is as dovish as it will get. In other words, having already laid out the conditions that must be in place for it to begin the next rate hike cycle, the Fed will not undertake further efforts to guide interest rates lower in the face of economic recovery. Chart 1 provides a bit more context for our assessment of Fed policy. This year, economic growth and inflation expectations troughed in March and moved rapidly higher throughout the summer. Bond yields, however, stayed relatively flat between March and August. The reason is that, even as the economic outlook improved, the Fed was steadily guiding markets towards a dramatic shift in its forward interest rate guidance. Specifically, the adoption of an Average Inflation Target – a pledge to allow a moderate overshoot of the 2% inflation target to make up for past downside misses. The result of the Fed’s dovish shift is that the increase in inflation expectations between March and August was entirely offset by falling real yields (Chart 1, panel 3), leaving nominal yields close to unchanged. However, the Fed made its Average Inflation Target official at the Jackson Hole Symposium in August. Then, in September, it formalized its forward rate guidance by promising not to lift rates off the zero bound until inflation reaches 2% and is expected to moderately overshoot for a while. These events changed the dynamic in the bond market. The Fed is no longer trying to guide markets towards a more dovish reaction function. That reaction function is now officially in place, and presumably in the market price. Indeed, nominal bond yields have risen in concert with improving economic conditions since August, and we expect that trend to continue in 2021. Our Golden Rule of Bond Investing states that we should set portfolio duration by considering our own expectations for future changes in the fed funds rate relative to what is already priced in the yield curve. Appendix A at the end of this report shows that the Golden Rule once again performed well in 2020. Looking ahead, the market is currently pricing-in one full 25 basis point rate hike by mid-2023 and then only one more by mid-2024 (Chart 2). We see high odds that inflation could sustainably reach 2% – the Fed’s stated criteria for lifting off the zero bound – before that, necessitating some Fed tightening in 2022. Chart 2Market Priced For Liftoff In 2023 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income How High Could Yields Go In 2021? To answer this question, we first look at the 5-year/5-year forward Treasury yield relative to survey estimates of the longer-run equilibrium fed funds rate. In theory, long-dated forward yields should be relatively insulated from near-term shifts in the policy rate and should settle near levels consistent with estimates of the equilibrium fed funds rate. In practice, we find that the 5-year/5-year forward Treasury yield does settle near these levels, but only during periods of global economic recovery when investors are presumably more inclined to envision the closing of the output gap and an eventual neutralizing of monetary policy. Notice that during the past two global growth upturns, 2013/14 and 2017/18, the 5-year/5-year forward Treasury yield peaked close to survey estimates of the long-run equilibrium fed funds rate from the New York Fed’s Survey of Market Participants and the Survey of Primary Dealers (Chart 3A). If the same thing happens next year, the 5-year/5-year forward Treasury yield will rise to a range of roughly 2% to 2.25%, 54 bps to 79 bps above current levels. Chart 3AHow High Can Yields Rise? 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income Chart 3BLess Upside In 10y Than In 5y5y 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income We see less upside next year for the benchmark 10-year yield than for the 5-year/5-year forward. Long-dated forward rates are not mathematically influenced by the near-term outlook for the policy rate, but the yield on the 10-year Treasury note embeds those expectations. Since it is unlikely that inflation will be strong enough to prompt a Fed rate hike in 2021, the yield curve will steepen as the economic outlook improves and the 10-year yield will rise by less than the 5-year/5-year forward. Looking at Chart 3B, next year’s bond market moves will look a lot more like 2013/14 than like 2017/18. The Fed kept rates at zero in 2013/14. This led to yield curve steepening and caused the 10-year Treasury yield to peak at a level well below survey estimates of the long-run equilibrium fed funds rate. In contrast, the Fed was hiking rates in 2017/18. This led to a flatter yield curve and caused the 10-year yield to peak at around the same level as the 5-year/5-year forward. All in all, while we could see the 5-year/5-year forward Treasury yield reach a range of 2% to 2.25% next year, we expect the 10-year Treasury yield to reach a range of 1.25% to 1.5%. Will The Fed Use Its Balance Sheet To Stop Treasury Yields From Rising? By far, the most common disagreement we’ve received from clients on our call for higher bond yields is that the Fed will simply use its balance sheet to prevent any increase in long-maturity yields. We don’t see this as having a meaningful impact. For one, the Fed will only take significant steps to ease monetary policy if it looks like the economic recovery is under threat. This would require a large tightening of financial conditions, meaning significantly lower stock prices and wider corporate bond spreads. We don’t see a 1.25% to 1.5% 10-year Treasury yield in the context of a steepening yield curve, low inflation and improving economic growth as likely to cause such an event. Granted, the Fed could take more minor actions, like keeping the same pace of purchases but shifting them further out the curve, but a significant tightening of financial conditions is likely required for them to increase the monthly pace of bond buying. Second, even if the Fed does decide to ramp up the pace of bond buying (either overall or only at the long-end of the curve), if it keeps the same forward interest rate guidance, then bond yields will be driven by the market’s perceived progress toward the conditions that would prompt the start of the next tightening cycle. It won’t matter how many bonds the Fed buys in the meantime. Our Golden Rule of Bond Investing has a strong track record that it achieves by focusing only on changes in the fed funds rate relative to expectations. It does not consider asset purchases at all, and we are also inclined to view them more as a distraction. Key View #2: Overweight TIPS Versus Nominal Treasuries Chart 4Adaptive Expectations Model 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income We remain overweight TIPS versus nominal Treasuries for the time being but are actively looking for an opportunity to get tactically underweight. This opportunity could emerge in the first half of 2021 when core and trimmed mean inflation re-converge and when the 10-year TIPS breakeven inflation rate looks expensive on our model. TIPS breakeven inflation rates fell dramatically when the COVID crisis struck in March, but they then rebounded just as quickly and are now near fair value according to our Adaptive Expectations Model (Chart 4). Our model forecasts the future 12-month change in the 10-year TIPS breakeven inflation rate based on where the rate currently sits relative to several different measures of actual CPI inflation. Right now, our model is looking for a 12 basis point decline in the 10-year breakeven rate during the next year, but this forecast will rise if CPI prints strongly in the coming months, which is exactly what we expect. Chart 5Expect Higher Inflation In H1 2021 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income As noted in the above Outlook Summary, base effects and the re-opening of some service sectors will cause inflation to jump in the first half of 2021. A good way to see this is to look at the gap between 12-month core and trimmed mean CPI (Chart 5). Core inflation fell dramatically in March and April and is now in the process of bouncing back. Meanwhile, trimmed mean inflation measures were much more stable in the spring because they filtered out those sectors that experienced huge negative inflation prints during quarantine.   We think the gap between core and trimmed mean CPI is a good guidepost for our TIPS strategy. As long as the gap remains wide, we see upside risks to inflation. However, once the gap closes, that will signal that the “snapback phase” from re-opening the economy is over and that inflation pressures will moderate in line with the wide output gap. Shelter inflation is one of the components of inflation that is most sensitive to the output gap, and it has already been rolling over in line with the rising unemployment rate (Chart 5, bottom panel). Overall, our TIPS strategy in 2021 is to remain overweight TIPS versus nominal Treasuries for the time being. However, we are actively looking for an opportunity to get tactically short TIPS versus nominals. This could occur sometime in the first half of 2021 when core and trimmed mean inflation have re-converged and when (hopefully) the 10-year TIPS breakeven inflation rate looks more expensive on our model. Key View #3: Own Nominal Yield Curve Steepeners, Real Yield Curve Steepeners and Inflation Curve Flatteners Chart 62/5/10 Butterfly Spread Valuation 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income The nominal yield curve will continue to trade directionally with yields. Therefore, higher yields will coincide with a steeper nominal curve in 2021. Rising inflation and the Fed’s new Average Inflation Target both argue for a flatter inflation curve in 2021. We also recommend a real yield curve steepener as a high octane play on both a steeper nominal curve and flatter inflation curve. Nominal Yield Curve With the funds rate pinned at zero and the Fed unlikely to actually lift it until 2022 (at the earliest), it is quite clear that the slope of the nominal yield curve will continue to trade directionally with yields as we head into 2021. That is, with volatility at the front-end of the curve completely suppressed, the yield curve will steepen when yields rise and flatten when they fall. In that context, we recommend complementing our below-benchmark portfolio duration view with nominal yield curve steepeners. Our preferred way to implement a nominal yield curve steepener is to buy the 5-year Treasury note and short a barbell consisting of the 2-year note and 10-year note. Allocations to the 2-year and 10-year should be weighted so that the duration of the 2/10 barbell matches that of the 5-year note. As we have explained in prior research, this sort of position is designed to profit from 2/10 yield curve steepening and it has worked well during the past few months (Chart 6).2  The one problem with this 5 over 2/10 trade is that it is not cheap. The 5-year yield is below the yield on the 2/10 barbell (Chart 6, panel 3) and the 5-year bullet looks expensive on our fair value model (Chart 6, bottom panel). However, we should also note that the 5-year looked much expensive during the last period of zero-bound rates in 2012. Given today’s very similar policy environment, we could see the 5-year yield getting even more expensive in 2021. Inflation Curve Chart 7Favor Inflation Curve Flatteners... 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income Our second recommended yield curve position relates to the inflation curve, either the TIPS breakeven inflation curve or the CPI swap curve. Here, we recommend owning inflation curve flatteners for two reasons. First, short-maturity inflation expectations are more sensitive to the actual inflation data than long-maturity expectations. We saw a prime example of this relationship in 2020. The 2-year CPI swap rate plunged into negative territory when inflation fell in March while the 10-year CPI swap rate held relatively stable in comparison (Chart 7). Subsequently, the 2-year CPI swap rate rose much more quickly than the 10-year rate this summer as inflation rebounded. Looking ahead, with inflation biased higher in the first half of 2021, we should see greater upside in short-maturity inflation expectations than in long-maturity ones. The Fed’s adoption of an Average Inflation Target is the second reason to favor inflation curve flatteners. If the Fed is ultimately successful at achieving an overshoot of its 2% inflation target, it will mean that the Fed will be attacking its inflation target from above rather than from below for the first time since the 1980s. Logically, the inflation curve should be inverted in this sort of environment. This means that the inflation curve still has a lot of room to flatten from current levels (Chart 7, bottom panel). Real Yield Curve Chart 8...And Real Yield Curve Steepeners 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income The Fisher Equation tells us that real yields are simply the difference between nominal yields and inflation expectations. Viewed that way, it is easy to see that – all else equal – a steeper nominal curve will lead to a steeper real yield curve. Meanwhile, a flatter inflation curve will also lead to a steeper real yield curve. In that sense, a real yield curve steepener is just a combination of the nominal curve steepener and inflation curve flattener that we already mentioned (Chart 8). As inflation rises, it will pressure short-dated inflation expectations higher relative to long-dated ones. This will exert bull-steepening pressure on the real yield curve. Meanwhile, investors starting to price-in eventual rate hikes will lead to nominal yield curve steepening. This will exert bear-steepening pressure on the real yield curve. With that in mind, a real yield curve steepener is a high conviction position for us in 2021. We have less conviction on the outright direction for real yields, though we suspect that long-maturity real yields have already troughed for the cycle. Key View #4: Overweight Spread Product Versus Treasuries We see the economy as entering what we call “Phase 1” of the economic cycle in 2021, an environment of above-trend growth, low inflation and accommodative monetary policy. This is an environment where spread product typically performs very well relative to Treasuries.  Most spread sectors will likely end the year having underperformed duration-equivalent Treasuries in 2020. However, this simple fact obscures the actual pattern of spread movements that was witnessed during the year. Spreads widened sharply when COVID struck but they peaked on March 23, the same day that the Federal Reserve announced its slew of emergency lending facilities.3 Spread product has been outperforming Treasuries since then (see Appendix B), a trend we expect will continue in 2021. The phase of the economic cycle when the economy is just emerging from a recession is typically one where risk assets perform well. The principal reason to expect spread product outperformance to continue is that the phase of the economic cycle when the economy is just emerging from a recession is typically one where risk assets perform well. It tends to be an environment where economic activity is growing at an above-trend pace, but inflation is still low and monetary conditions are accommodative. This is the perfect environment for credit spreads to tighten. The slope of the yield curve is a useful variable for summarizing the above macro conditions and we often use it to define three phases of the economic cycle (Chart 9): Chart 9The Three Phases Of The Cycle 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income Phase 1 is defined as the time between the end of the last recession and when the 3-year/10-year Treasury slope flattens to below 50 bps. Phase 2 is defined as when the 3-year/10-year Treasury slope is between 0 bps and 50 bps. Phase 3 is defined as the time between when the 3-year/10-year Treasury slope turns negative and the start of the next recession. As we are just now emerging from recession and the 3-year/10-year slope is above 50 bps and steepening, we see the economy as being firmly in Phase 1 of the cycle. Historically, this phase has been the best one for spread product returns relative to duration-matched Treasuries (Table 1). Table 1Corporate Bond Performance In Different Phases Of The Cycle 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income The main risk to this view of spread product is that we are not yet emerging from the recession and the corporate default rate may have another leg higher. Our sense, however, is that the default rate has already peaked. Gross leverage (the ratio between total corporate debt and pre-tax corporate profits) and job cut announcements are two variables that correlate very tightly with the default rate (Chart 10). Starting with leverage, net earnings revisions – a leader profit indicator – have already troughed and the corporate financing gap has turned negative (Chart 11). A negative financing gap means that the corporate sector has sufficient retained earnings to cover its capital expenditures. In other words, most firms are flush with cash and they won’t need to issue more debt in the coming quarters. Further, job cut announcements have come down sharply during the past few months (Chart 11, bottom panel). Chart 10The Default Rate Correlates With Gross Leverage And Job Cuts 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income Chart 11Firms Have Enough Cash 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income The above trends in corporate profits, corporate debt and job cut announcements are consistent with what we’re already seeing on the default front. The US corporate sector was experiencing upwards of 20 default events per month back in May, June and July. But only seven defaults occurred in November, following five in October and six in September (Chart 12). Chart 12The Default Rate Has Peaked 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income The bottom line is that the macro environment of above-trend growth, low inflation and accommodative monetary policy is one where we should expect spread product to outperform Treasuries. Relative valuation dictates which spread sectors we prefer over other ones, and the next two Key Views address this issue. Key View #5: Move Down In Quality Within Corporates Investment grade corporates will outperform Treasuries in 2021, but the potential for further spread compression is limited. Junk spreads have more room to tighten, and the Ba credit tier looks particularly attractive from a risk/reward perspective. As noted in the previous section, the macroeconomic environment is one where spread product should flourish. However, valuation in certain sectors could limit how much further spread tightening is possible. In particular, valuation looks to be a constraint for investment grade corporates. In absolute terms, investment grade corporate spreads look like they still have some room to compress (Chart 13). The overall index spread is 12 bps above its pre-COVID level. The Aa, A and Baa-rated spreads are 16 bps, 11 bps and 13 bps above, respectively. Only seven defaults occurred in November, following five in October and six in September. However, valuation looks much worse in risk-adjusted terms. Chart 14 shows the 12-month breakeven spread, i.e. the spread widening required for the sector to underperform Treasuries on a 12-month investment horizon. In addition, we re-weight the overall corporate index to ensure that it maintains a constant credit rating distribution over time, and we show all breakeven spreads as percentile ranks relative to their own histories. For example, a reading of 8% for the Baa credit tier means that the 12-month breakeven spread for the Baa credit tier has only been lower than it is today 8% of the time since our data begin in 1995. Chart 13IG Spreads Still Above ##br##Pre-COVID levels 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income Chart 14IG Looks More Expensive In Risk-Adjusted Terms 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income Adding it all up, we think there is scope for investment grade corporates to modestly outperform Treasuries in 2021, but there are also more attractively priced sectors that investors may want to consider. Municipal bonds are one particularly attractive alternative to investment grade corporates (we discuss our view on municipal bonds in the next section), but investors are also advised to pick-up additional spread by moving down in quality within the corporate credit space. High-Yield corporate bonds have significantly more scope for tightening than their investment grade counterparts, with the overall junk index spread still 69 bps above its pre-COVID level (Chart 15). Within junk, the Ba credit tier looks like the best place to camp out from a risk/reward perspective. The incremental spread offered by Ba-rated junk bonds compared to Baa-rated corporates is elevated compared to history, 111 bps above its 2019 low (Chart 15, panel 2). In contrast, the additional spread pick-up you get from moving into the lower junk tiers (B & Caa) is more in line with typical historical levels (Chart 15, bottom 2 panels). Chart 15Ba-Rated Bonds Look Best 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income Another reason to be cautious about chasing the extra spread in the B-rated and below credit tiers is that the High-Yield index is pricing-in a fairly rapid decline in the default rate for the next 12 months (Chart 16). If we assume a 25% recovery rate and target an excess spread of 150 bps above default losses,4 then we calculate a spread-implied default rate of 3.1%. That is, we should only expect junk bonds to outperform duration-matched Treasuries if the default rate comes in below 3.1% during the next 12 months. This would represent a steep decline of 5.3% from the 8.4% default rate we just witnessed during the past 12 months, but this sort of big drop in the default rate would not be out of line with what typically happens when the economy emerges from recession. For example, in the last recession, the 12-month default rate peaked at 14.6% in November 2009 and then fell to 3.6% by November 2010, a decline of 11%! Chart 16Spread-Implied Default Rate 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income All in all, we view the Ba-rated credit tier as the sweet spot within corporate credit in terms of offering the best combination of risk and reward. We also expect the default rate to fall quickly enough that the lower-rated junk credit tiers will outperform Treasuries, but the risk here is greater and the potential additional compensation is not historically elevated. Investment grade corporate spreads will remain tight, but have limited room to compress further. Investors are advised to look at Ba-rated corporates and municipal bonds instead.  Key View #6: A Maximum Overweight Allocation To Municipal Bonds Tax-exempt municipal bonds offer the best opportunity in the US fixed income space. Investors should adopt a maximum overweight allocation, and in particular, they should shift some allocation out of investment grade corporates and into Munis with the same credit rating and duration, but with a greater after-tax yield. At present, we think that tax-exempt municipal bonds represent the best opportunity in US fixed income. Muni spreads have certainly tightened since March, but valuation remains attractive relative to both Treasuries and investment grade corporates. First, let’s consider value relative to Treasuries (Chart 17). Spreads between Aaa-rated municipal bonds and maturity-matched Treasuries are elevated compared to history across the entire yield curve. 2-year Munis even offer a 3 bps yield pick-up over 2-year Treasuries before adjusting for the tax advantage. Further out the curve, value is worst at the 5-year part of the curve where the breakeven effective tax rate between Munis and Treasuries is 42%, slightly above the top marginal tax rate of 37%. But value improves again for longer maturities. The breakeven effective tax rate between 10-year Munis and Treasuries is 24% and it is a mere 10% for 30-year bonds.5 Next, we can look at relative value between Munis and credit. This is where the attractiveness of munis really stands out (Chart 18). After controlling for credit rating and duration, municipal revenue bonds offer a yield advantage over the Bloomberg Barclays Credit Index across the entire yield curve, before any adjustment is made for the municipal tax exemption. General Obligation (GO) Munis only offer a before-tax yield advantage over credit beyond the 12-year maturity point, but the GO Muni/credit spread is nonetheless historically elevated for all maturity buckets. Chart 17Muni/Treasury Yield Spreads 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income Chart 18Munis Versus Credit 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income This is all well and good, but it could easily be countered that municipal bonds only offer such attractive valuations because the COVID recession has been an historically challenging period for state & local government balance sheets. If this period leads to a spate of downgrades and defaults, then municipal bonds no longer look cheap. All this is true, but we think investors’ worst fears in this regard will not be realized. For one thing, state & local governments have been very quick to clamp down on spending and cut employment (Chart 19). Coming out of the last recession, Muni/Treasury yield spreads had almost fully recovered by the time that state & local government austerity began. Also, state budgets were in pretty good shape heading into the COVID downturn, with all-time high Rainy Day Fund balances (Chart 19, bottom panel). Chart 19State & Local Austerity Has Begun 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income We recommend that investors take advantage of historically attractive municipal bond spreads by adopting a maximum overweight allocation. In particular, investors should shift allocation out of investment grade rated corporate bonds, where valuations are stretched, and into municipal bonds that offer the same credit rating and duration with a greater yield pick-up. Finally, Chart 20 shows the spread between different municipal bond sectors and the Bloomberg Barclays US Credit Index. We match the credit rating and duration in each case, but we make no adjustments for the municipal tax exemption. The message from Chart 20 is that the yield advantage in investment grade Munis is broad based, with the exception of the Electric sector. We also see that attractive valuations do not extend to high-yield Munis, which appear expensive relative to High-Yield Credit. Chart 20Municipal Bond Sector Valuation 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income Appendix A:  The Golden Rule Of Bond Investing Our Golden Rule of Bond Investing says that we should determine what change in the fed funds rate is priced into the overnight index swap curve for the next 12 months, and then decide whether the Fed will deliver a hawkish or dovish surprise relative to that expectation. We contend that if the Fed delivers a hawkish surprise, then a below-benchmark portfolio duration positioning will pay off. Conversely, if the Fed delivers a dovish surprise, then an above-benchmark portfolio duration positioning will profit. Chart A1 shows how the Golden Rule has performed in every calendar year going back to 1990. We include year-to-date performance for 2020. In 31 years of historical data, our Golden Rule performed well in 23. It provided the wrong recommendation in 8 years, though 3 of those years were during the zero-lower-bound period between 2009 and 2015 when 12-month rate expectations were essentially pinned at zero.6 Chart A1The Golden Rule's Track Record 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income At the beginning of this year, the market was priced for 13 bps of rate cuts in 2020. The funds rate actually fell by 146 bps, leading to a dovish surprise of 133 bps. Based on a historical regression, we would expect a dovish surprise of 133 bps to coincide with a Treasury index yield that falls by 81 bps. In actuality, the index yield fell by 122 bps, more than our Golden Rule predicted. Chart A2 shows how close changes in the Treasury index yield have been to our Golden Rule’s prediction in each of the past 31 years. This regression between the change in Treasury index yield and the monetary policy surprise is the main source of error in our Treasury return forecasts. Chart A2Treasury Index Yield Changes Versus Fed Funds Surprises 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income Based on our expected -81 bps index yield change, we would have expected the Treasury index to deliver 6.5% of total return in 2020 and to outperform cash by 5.5%. In actuality, the index earned 7.9% of total return and outperformed cash by 7%. Charts A3 and A4 show how index total and excess returns have performed relative to our Golden Rule’s expectations in each of the past 31 years. Chart A3Treasury Index Total Returns Versus The Golden Rule’s Predictions 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income Chart A4Treasury Index Excess Returns Versus The Golden Rule’s Predictions 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income Appendix B: Spread Product Performance In 2020 Table B1Spread Product Year-To-Date Performance 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income Table B2Performance Since March 23 Announcement Of Emergency Fed Facilities 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income 2021 Key Views: US Fixed Income Ryan Swift US Bond Strategist rswift@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1 Please see The Bank Credit Analyst, “Outlook 2021: A Brave New World”, dated November 30, 2020, available at bca.bcaresearch.com 2 Please see US Bond Strategy Special Report, “Bullets, Barbells And Butterflies”, dated July 25, 2017, available at usbs.bcaresearch.com 3 We discussed these facilities in detail in two Special Reports published jointly this year with our US Investment Strategy team. US Investment Strategy / US Bond Strategy Special Report, “Alphabet Soup: A Summary Of The Fed’s Anti-Virus Measures”, dated April 14, 2020 and US Investment Strategy / US Bond Strategy Special Report, “Alphabet Soup Part 2: Shocked And Awed”, dated July 28, 2020. Both reports available at usbs.bcaresearch.com 4 Our research has shown that this is the minimum excess spread investors should require to be confident that junk bonds will outperform duration-matched Treasuries. For more details please see US Bond Strategy Weekly Report, “No Holding Back”, dated June 16, 2020, available at usbs.bcaresearch.com 5 The breakeven effective tax rate is the effective tax rate that makes the after-tax muni yield the same as the Treasury yield. If the investor’s personal tax rate is above the breakeven effective tax rate, they will get an after-tax yield pick-up from owning the municipal bond over the Treasury. 6 We say the Golden Rule “worked” if a dovish surprise coincided with positive Treasury index excess returns versus cash, or if a hawkish surprise coincided with negative Treasury excess returns versus cash. Recommended Portfolio Specification

Highlights With a vaccine already rolling out in the UK and soon in the US, investors have reason to be optimistic about next year. Government bond yields are rising, cyclical equities are outperforming defensives, international stocks hinting at outperforming American, and value stocks are starting to beat growth stocks (Chart 1). Feature President Trump’s defeat in the US election also reduces the risk of a global trade war, or a real war with Iran. European, Chinese, and Emirati stocks have rallied since the election, at least partly due to the reduction in these risks (Chart 2). However, geopolitical risk and global policy uncertainty have been rising on a secular, not just cyclical, basis (Chart 3). Geopolitical tensions have escalated with each crisis since the financial meltdown of 2008. Chart 1A New Global Business Cycle A New Global Business Cycle A New Global Business Cycle Chart 2Biden: No Trade War Or War With Iran? Biden: No Trade War Or War With Iran? Biden: No Trade War Or War With Iran? Chart 3Geopolitical Risk And Global Policy Uncertainty Geopolitical Risk And Global Policy Uncertainty Geopolitical Risk And Global Policy Uncertainty Chart 4The Decline Of The Liberal Democracies? The Decline Of The Liberal Democracies? The Decline Of The Liberal Democracies? Trump was a symptom, not a cause, of what ails the world. The cause is the relative decline of the liberal democracies in political, economic, and military strength relative to that of other global players (Chart 4). This relative decline has emboldened Chinese and Russian challenges to the US-led global order, as well as aggressive and unpredictable moves by middle and small powers. Moreover the aftershocks of the pandemic and recession will create social and political instability in various parts of the world, particularly emerging markets (Chart 5). Chart 5EM Troubles Await EM Troubles Await EM Troubles Await Chart 6Global Arms Build-Up Continues Global Arms Build-Up Continues Global Arms Build-Up Continues   We are bullish on risk assets next year, but our view is driven largely from the birth of a new economic cycle, not from geopolitics. Geopolitical risk is rapidly becoming underrated, judging by the steep drop-off in measured risk. There is no going back to a pre-Trump, pre-Xi Jinping, pre-2008, pre-Putin, pre-9/11, pre-historical golden age in which nations were enlightened, benign, and focused exclusively on peace and prosperity. Hard data, such as military spending, show the world moving in the opposite direction (Chart 6). So while stock markets will grind higher next year, investors should not expect that Biden and the vaccine truly portend a “return to normalcy.” Key View #1: China’s Communist Party Turns 100, With Rising Headwinds Investors should ignore the hype about the Chinese Communist Party’s one hundredth birthday in 2021. Since 1997, the Chinese leadership has laid great emphasis on this “first centenary” as an occasion by which China should become a moderately prosperous society. This has been achieved. China is deep into a structural economic transition that holds out a much more difficult economic, social, and political future. Chart 7China: Less Money, More Problems China: Less Money, More Problems China: Less Money, More Problems The big day, July 1, will be celebrated with a speech by General Secretary Xi Jinping in which he reiterates the development goals of the five-year plan. This plan – which doubles down on import substitution and the aggressive tech acquisition campaign – will be finalized in March, along with Xi’s yet-to-be released vision for 2035, which marks the halfway point to the “second centenary,” 2049, the hundredth birthday of the regime. Xi’s 2035 goals may contain some surprises but the Communist Party’s policy frameworks should be seen as “best laid plans” that are likely to be overturned by economic and geopolitical realities. It was easier for the country to meet its political development targets during the period of rapid industrialization from 1979-2008. Now China is deep into a structural economic transition that holds out a much more difficult economic, social, and political future. Potential growth is slowing with the graying of society and the country is making a frantic dash, primarily through technology acquisition, to boost productivity and keep from falling into the “middle income trap” (Chart 7). Total debt levels have surged as Beijing attempts to make this transition smoothly, without upsetting social stability. Households and the government are taking on a greater debt load to maintain aggregate demand while the government tries to force the corporate sector to deleverage in fits and starts (Chart 8). The deleveraging process is painful and coincides with a structural transition away from export-led manufacturing. Beijing likely believes it has already led de-industrialization proceed too quickly, given the huge long-term political risks of this process, as witnessed in the US and UK. The fourteenth five-year plan hints that the authorities will give manufacturing a reprieve from structural reform efforts (Chart 9). Chart 8China Struggles To Dismount Debt Bubble China Struggles To Dismount Debt Bubble China Struggles To Dismount Debt Bubble Chart 9China Will Slow De-Industrialization, Stoking Protectionism China Will Slow De-Industrialization, Stoking Protectionism China Will Slow De-Industrialization, Stoking Protectionism Chart 10China Already Reining In Stimulus China Already Reining In Stimulus China Already Reining In Stimulus A premature resumption of deleveraging heightens domestic economic risks. The trade war and then the pandemic forced the Xi administration to abandon its structural reform plans temporarily and drastically ease monetary, fiscal, and credit policy to prevent a recession. Almost immediately the danger of asset bubbles reared its head again. Because the regime is focused on containing systemic financial risk, it has already begun tightening monetary policy as the nation heads into 2021 – even though the rest of the world has not fully recovered from the pandemic (Chart 10). The risk of over-tightening is likely to be contained, since Beijing has no interest in undermining its own recovery. But the risk is understated in financial markets at the moment and, combined with American fiscal risks due to gridlock, this familiar Chinese policy tug-of-war poses a clear risk to the global recovery and emerging market assets next year. Far more important than the first centenary, or even General Secretary Xi’s 2035 vision, is the impending leadership rotation in 2022. Xi was originally supposed to step down at this time – instead he is likely to take on the title of party chairman, like Mao, and aims to stay in power till 2035 or thereabouts. He will consolidate power once again through a range of crackdowns – on political rivals and corruption, on high-flying tech and financial companies, on outdated high-polluting industries, and on ideological dissenters. Beijing must have a stable economy going into its five-year national party congresses, and 2022 is no different. But that goal has largely been achieved through this year’s massive stimulus and the discovery of a global vaccine. In a risk-on environment, the need for economic stability poses a downside risk for financial assets since it implies macro-prudential actions to curb bubbles. The 2017 party congress revealed that Xi sees policy tightening as a key part of his policy agenda and power consolidation. In short, the critical twentieth congress in 2022 offers no promise of plentiful monetary and credit stimulus (Chart 11). All investors can count on is the minimum required for stability. This is positive for emerging markets at the moment, but less so as the lagged effects of this year’s stimulus dissipate. Chart 11No Promise Of Major New Stimulus For Party Congress 2022 No Promise Of Major New Stimulus For Party Congress 2022 No Promise Of Major New Stimulus For Party Congress 2022 Not only will Chinese domestic policy uncertainty remain underestimated, but geopolitical risk will also do so. Superficially, Beijing had a banner year in 2020. It handled the coronavirus better than other countries, especially the US, thus advertising Xi Jinping’s centralized and statist governance model. President Trump lost the election. Regardless of why Trump lost, his trade war precipitated a manufacturing slowdown that hit the Rust Belt in 2019, before the virus, and his loss will warn future presidents against assaulting China’s economy head-on, at least in their first term. All of this is worth gold in Chinese domestic politics. Chart 12China’s Image Suffered In Spite Of Trump 2021 Key Views: No Return To Normalcy 2021 Key Views: No Return To Normalcy Internationally, however, China’s image has collapsed – and this is in spite of Trump’s erratic and belligerent behavior, which alienated most of the world and the US’s allies (Chart 12). Moreover, despite being the origin of COVID-19, China’s is one of the few economies that thrived this year. Its global manufacturing share rose. While delaying and denying transparency regarding the virus, China accused other countries of originating the virus, and unleashed a virulent “wolf warrior” diplomacy, a military standoff with India, and a trade war with Australia. The rest of Asia will be increasingly willing to take calculated risks to counterbalance China’s growing regional clout, and international protectionist headwinds will persist. The United States will play a leading part in this process. Sino-American strategic tensions have grown relentlessly for more than a decade, especially since Xi Jinping rose to power, as is evident from Chinese treasury holdings (Chart 13). The Biden administration will naturally seek a diplomatic “reset” and a new strategic and economic dialogue with China. But Biden has already indicated that he intends to insist on China’s commitments under Trump’s “phase one” trade deal. He says he will keep Trump’s sweeping Section 301 tariffs in place, presumably until China demonstrates improvement on the intellectual property and tech transfer practices that provided the rationale for the tariffs. Biden’s victory in the Rust Belt ensures that he cannot revert to the pre-Trump status quo. Indeed Biden amplifies the US strategic challenge to China’s rise because he is much more likely to assemble a “grand alliance” or “coalition of the willing” focused on constraining China’s illiberal and mercantilist policies. Even the combined economic might of a western coalition is not enough to force China to abandon its statist development model, but it would make negotiations more likely to be successful on the West’s more limited and transactional demands (Chart 14). Chart 13The US-China Divorce Pre-Dates And Post-Dates Trump The US-China Divorce Pre-Dates And Post-Dates Trump The US-China Divorce Pre-Dates And Post-Dates Trump Chart 14Biden's Grand Alliance A Danger To China Biden's Grand Alliance A Danger To China Biden's Grand Alliance A Danger To China The Taiwan Strait is ground zero for US-China geopolitical tensions. The US is reviving its right to arm Taiwan for the sake of its self-defense, but the US commitment is questionable at best – and it is this very uncertainty that makes a miscalculation more likely and hence conflict a major tail risk (Chart 15). True, Beijing has enormous economic leverage over Taiwan, and it is fresh off a triumph of imposing its will over Hong Kong, which vindicates playing the long game rather than taking any preemptive military actions that could prove disastrous. Nevertheless, Xi Jinping’s reassertion of Beijing and communism is driving Taiwanese popular opinion away from the mainland, resulting in a polarizing dynamic that will be extremely difficult to bridge (Chart 16). If China comes to believe that the Biden administration is pursuing a technological blockade just as rapidly and resolutely as the Trump administration, then it could conclude that Taiwan should be brought to heel sooner rather than later. Chart 15US Boosts Arms Sales To Taiwan 2021 Key Views: No Return To Normalcy 2021 Key Views: No Return To Normalcy Chart 16Taiwan Strait Risk Will Explode If Biden Seeks Tech Blockade 2021 Key Views: No Return To Normalcy 2021 Key Views: No Return To Normalcy Bottom Line: On a secular basis, China faces rising domestic economic risks and rising geopolitical risk. Given the rally in Chinese currency and equities in 2021, the downside risk is greater than the upside risk of any fleeting “diplomatic reset” with the United States. Emerging markets will benefit from China’s stimulus this year but will suffer from its policy tightening over time. Key View #2: The US “Pivot To Asia” Is Back On … And Runs Through Iran Most likely President-elect Biden will face gridlock at home. His domestic agenda largely frustrated, he will focus on foreign policy. Given his old age, he may also be a one-term president, which reinforces the need to focus on the achievable. He will aim to restore the Obama administration’s foreign policy, the chief features of which were the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and the “Pivot to Asia.” The US is limited by the need to pivot to Asia, while Iran is limited by the risk of regime failure. A deal should be agreed. The purpose of the Iranian deal was to limit Iran’s nuclear and regional ambitions, stabilize Iraq, create a semblance of regional balance, and thus enable American military withdrawal. The US could have simply abandoned the region, but Iran’s ensuing supremacy would have destabilized the region and quickly sucked the US back in. The newly energy independent US needed a durable deal. Then it could turn its attention to Asia Pacific, where it needed to rebuild its strategic influence in the face of a challenger that made Iran look like a joke (Chart 17). Chart 17The "Pivot To Asia" In A Nutshell The "Pivot To Asia" In A Nutshell The "Pivot To Asia" In A Nutshell It is possible for Biden to revive the Iranian deal, given that the other five members of the agreement have kept it afloat during the Trump years. Moreover, since it was always an executive deal that lacked Senate approval, Biden can rejoin unilaterally. However, the deal largely expires in 2025 – and the Trump administration accurately criticized the deal’s failure to contain Iran’s missile development and regional ambitions. Therefore Biden is proposing a renegotiation. This could lead to an even greater US-Iran engagement, but it is not clear that a robust new deal is feasible. Iran can also recommit to the old deal, having taken only incremental steps to violate the deal after the US’s departure – manifestly as leverage for future negotiations. Of course, the Iranians are not likely to give up their nuclear program in the long run, as nuclear weapons are the golden ticket to regime survival. Libya gave up its nuclear program and was toppled by NATO; North Korea developed its program into deliverable nuclear weapons and saw an increase in stature. Iran will continue to maintain a nuclear program that someday could be weaponized. Nevertheless, Tehran will be inclined to deal with Biden. President Hassan Rouhani is a lame duck, his legacy in tatters due to Trump, but his final act in office could be to salvage his legacy (and his faction’s hopes) by overseeing a return to the agreement prior to Iran’s presidential election in June. From Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s point of view, this would be beneficial. He also needs to secure his legacy, but as he tries to lay the groundwork for his power succession, Iran faces economic collapse, widespread social unrest, and a potentially explosive division between the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and the more pragmatic political faction hoping for economic opening and reform. Iran needs a reprieve from US maximum pressure, so Khamenei will ultimately rejoin a limited nuclear agreement if it enables the regime to live to fight another day. In short, the US is limited by the need to pivot to Asia, while Iran is limited by the risk of regime failure. A deal should be agreed. But this is precisely why conflict could erupt in 2021. First, either in Trump’s final days in office or in the early days of the Biden administration, Israel could take military action – as it has likely done several times this year already – to set back the Iranian nuclear program and try to reinforce its own long-term security. Second, the Biden administration could decide to utilize the immense leverage that President Trump has bequeathed, resulting in a surprisingly confrontational stance that would push Iran to the brink. This is unlikely but it may be necessary due to the following point. Third, China and Russia could refuse to cooperate with the US, eliminating the prospect of a robust renegotiation of the deal, and forcing Biden to choose between accepting the shabby old deal or adopting something similar to Trump’s maximum pressure. China will probably cooperate; Russia is far less certain. Beijing knows that the US intention in Iran is to free up strategic resources to revive the US position in Asia, but it has offered limited cooperation on Iran and North Korea because it does not have an interest in their acquiring nuclear weapons and it needs to mitigate US hostility. Biden has a much stronger political mandate to confront China than he does to confront Iran. Assuming that the Israelis and Saudis can no more prevent Biden’s détente with Iran than they could Obama’s, the next question will be whether Biden effectively shifts from a restored Iranian deal to shoring up these allies and partners. He can possibly build on the Abraham Accords negotiated by the Trump administration smooth Israeli ties with the Arab world. The Middle East could conceivably see a semblance of balance. But not in 2021. The coming year will be the rocky transition phase in which the US-Iran détente succeeds or fails. Chart 18Oil Market Share War Preceded The Last US-Iran Deal Oil Market Share War Preceded The Last US-Iran Deal Oil Market Share War Preceded The Last US-Iran Deal Chart 19Still, Base Case Is For Rising Oil Prices Still, Base Case Is For Rising Oil Prices Still, Base Case Is For Rising Oil Prices Chart 20Biden Needs A Credible Threat Biden Needs A Credible Threat Biden Needs A Credible Threat The lead-up to the 2015 Iranian deal saw a huge collapse in global oil prices due to a market share war with Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the US triggered by US shale production and Iranian sanctions relief (Chart 18). This was despite rising global demand and the emergence of the Islamic State in Iraq. In 2021, global demand will also be reviving and Iraq, though not in the midst of full-scale war, is still unstable. OPEC 2.0 could buckle once again, though Moscow and Riyadh already confirmed this year that they understand the devastating consequences of not cooperating on production discipline. Our Commodity and Energy Strategy projects that the cartel will continue to operate, thus drawing down inventories (Chart 19). The US and/or Israel will have to establish a credible military threat to ensure that Iran is in check, and that will create fireworks and geopolitical risks first before it produces any Middle Eastern balance (Chart 20). Bottom Line: The US and Iran are both driven to revive the 2015 nuclear deal by strategic needs. Whether a better deal can be negotiated is less likely. The return to US-Iran détente is a source of geopolitical risk in 2021 though it should ultimately succeed. The lower risk of full-scale war is negative for global oil prices but OPEC 2.0 cartel behavior will be the key determiner. The cartel flirted with disaster in 2020 and will most likely hang together in 2021 for the sake of its members’ domestic stability. Key View #3: Europe Wins The US Election Chart 21Europe Won The US Election Europe Won The US Election Europe Won The US Election The European Union has not seen as monumental of a challenge from anti-establishment politicians over the past decade as have Britain and America. The establishment has doubled down on integration and solidarity. Now Europe is the big winner of the US election. Brussels and Berlin no longer face a tariff onslaught from Trump, a US-instigated global trade war, or as high of a risk of a major war in the Middle East. Biden’s first order of business will be reviving the trans-Atlantic alliance. Financial markets recognize that Europe is the winner and the euro has finally taken off against the dollar over the past year. European industrials and small caps outperformed during the trade war as well as COVID-19, a bullish signal (Chart 21). Reinforcing this trend is the fact that China is looking to court Europe and reduce momentum for an anti-China coalition. The center of gravity in Europe is Germany and 2021 faces a major transition in German politics. Chancellor Angela Merkel will step down at long last. Her Christian Democratic Union is favored to retain power after receiving a much-needed boost for its handling of this year’s crisis (Chart 22), although the risk of an upset and change of ruling party is much greater than consensus holds. Chart 22German Election Poses Political Risk, Not Investment Risk German Election Poses Political Risk, Not Investment Risk German Election Poses Political Risk, Not Investment Risk However, from an investment point of view, an upset in the German election is not very concerning. A left-wing coalition would take power that would merely reinforce the shift toward more dovish fiscal policy and European solidarity. Either way Germany will affirm what France affirmed in 2017, and what France is on track to reaffirm in 2022: that the European project is intact, despite Brexit, and evolving to address various challenges. The European project is intact, despite Brexit, and evolving to address various challenges. This is not to say that European elections pose no risk. In fact, there will be upsets as a result of this year’s crisis and the troubled aftermath. The countries with upcoming elections – or likely snap elections in the not-too-distant future, like Spain and Italy – show various levels of vulnerability to opposition parties (Chart 23). Chart 23Post-COVID EU Elections Will Not Be A Cakewalk Post-COVID EU Elections Will Not Be A Cakewalk Post-COVID EU Elections Will Not Be A Cakewalk Chart 24Immigration Tailwind For Populism Subsided Immigration Tailwind For Populism Subsided Immigration Tailwind For Populism Subsided The chief risks to Europe stem from fiscal normalization and instability abroad. Regime failures in the Middle East and Africa could send new waves of immigration, and high levels of immigration have fueled anti-establishment politics over the past decade. Yet this is not a problem at the moment (Chart 24). And even more so than the US, the EU has tightened border enforcement and control over immigration (Chart 25). This has enabled the political establishment to save itself from populist discontent. The other danger for Europe is posed by Russian instability. In general, Moscow is focusing on maintaining domestic stability amid the pandemic and ongoing economic austerity, as well as eventual succession concerns. However, Vladimir Putin’s low approval rating has often served as a warning that Russia might take an external action to achieve some limited national objective and instigate opposition from the West, which increases government support at home (Chart 26). Chart 25Europe Tough On Immigration Like US Europe Tough On Immigration Like US Europe Tough On Immigration Like US Chart 26Warning Sign That Russia May Lash Out Warning Sign That Russia May Lash Out Warning Sign That Russia May Lash Out Chart 27Russian Geopolitical Risk Premium Rising Russian Geopolitical Risk Premium Rising Russian Geopolitical Risk Premium Rising The US Democratic Party is also losing faith in engagement with Russia, so while it will need to negotiate on Iran and arms reduction, it will also seek to use sanctions and democracy promotion to undermine Putin’s regime and his leverage over Europe. The Russian geopolitical risk premium will rise, upsetting an otherwise fairly attractive opportunity relative to other emerging markets (Chart 27). Bottom Line: The European democracies have passed a major “stress test” over the past decade. The dollar will fall relative to the euro, in keeping with macro fundamentals, though it will not be supplanted as the leading reserve currency. Europe and the euro will benefit from the change of power in Washington, and a rise in European political risks will still be minor from a global point of view. Russia and the ruble will suffer from a persistent risk premium. Investment Takeaways As the “Year of the Rat” draws to a close, geopolitical risk and global policy uncertainty have come off the boil and safe haven assets have sold off. Yet geopolitical risk will remain elevated in 2021. The secular drivers of the dramatic rise in this risk since 2008 have not been resolved. To play the above themes and views, we are initiating the following strategic investment recommendations: Long developed market equities ex-US – US outperformance over DM has reached extreme levels and the global economic cycle and post-pandemic revival will favor DM-ex-US. Long emerging market equities ex-China – Emerging markets will benefit from a falling dollar and commodity recovery. China has seen the good news but now faces the headwinds outlined above. Long European industrials relative to global – European equities stand to benefit from the change of power in Washington, US-China decoupling, and the global recovery. Long Mexican industrials versus emerging markets – Mexico witnessed the rise of an American protectionist and a landslide election in favor of a populist left-winger. Now it has a new trade deal with the US and the US is diversifying from China, while its ruling party faces a check on its power via midterm elections, and, regardless, has maintained orthodox economic policy. Long Indian equities versus Chinese – Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a single party majority, four years on his political clock, and has recommitted to pro-productivity structural reforms. The nation is taking more concerted action in pursuit of economic development since strategic objectives in South Asia cannot be met without greater dynamism. The US, Japan, Australia, and other countries are looking to develop relations as they diversify from China.   Matt Gertken Vice President Geopolitical Strategy mattg@bcaresearch.com