Indian EPS growth is set for major disappointments vis-à-vis the lofty expectations. Weak domestic demand amid tight fiscal and monetary policy entails more downside in stock prices. Stay underweight.

In Section I, we discuss why the rally in stock prices over the past month reflects the soft-landing view, and why that is not a likely economic outcome. US inflation is slowing, but target inflation remains elusive. Meanwhile,…

Special Report

An important annual event is when long-time client Mr. X visits BCA strategists at the end of each year to talk about the economic and financial outlook and a write-up of the discussion is published as our Annual Outlook report.…

Special Report

This Special Report discusses why there is a non-negligible risk that the US Congress will not reach a timely agreement to lift the debt ceiling this summer. It also discusses what will happen in bond markets in the lead up to the…

The dollar has entered a structural bear market. Although the greenback could get a temporary reprieve during the next recession, investors should position for a weaker dollar over the long haul.

Eventually South Africa will do its macro rebalancing the least painful way: via adjustments in nominal variables such as prices and currency, rather than in real variables such as jobs and incomes. That entails a much weaker rand in…

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.

Special Report

In Section I, we discuss the implications of the banking crisis that emerged in March. We do not expect what happened in the US or Europe to morph into a full-blown meltdown of the financial system, but this month’s events will…

Systematically important central banks continue to compound policy errors, which will feed higher headline inflation. Hiking interest rates to induce labor-market slack – i.e., higher unemployment – to bring down core inflation will…

Special Report

This week’s Special Report goes over the structural problems facing the UK economy and our outlook for UK gilts and the sterling following turbulent moves in 2022.