In this report, we assess that sterling likely bottomed below 1.04. We expect volatility in the currency to remain in place but are buyers below current levels. On balance, there is a tug of war between irresponsible fiscal policy…
Executive Summary For the first time in a decade, it is much less attractive to buy than to rent a home. In both the UK and US, the mortgage rate is now almost double the average rental yield. To reset the equilibrium between buying…
Listen to a short summary of this report Executive Summary GIS Projection For The EUR/USD We went long the euro early last week, as EUR/USD hit our buy limit price of $0.99. Despite a near cut-off of…
In lieu of next week’s report, I will host the monthly Counterpoint Webcast on Thursday, September 22 (9:00 AM EDT, 2:00 PM BST). In this Webcast, I will discuss the near-term and longer-term prospects for all the major asset classes…
Highlights The odds of a Goldilocks outcome for the US economy increased somewhat in August, but the risks of a US recession over the coming year remain quite elevated. We continue to recommend that investors stay neutrally positioned…
Executive Summary US Companies Will Attempt To Raise Selling Prices To Protect Their Profit Margins China needs lower interest rates and a weaker currency to battle deflationary pressures. In the US, the main problem is…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Euro Bulls Are Evaporating The euro is likely to undershoot in the near term, as the winter months approach and economic volatility in Europe…
Executive Summary Biden Taps China-Bashing Consensus House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan reflects one of our emerging views in 2022: the Biden administration’s willingness to take foreign policy risks…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Investors Are Pricing In A Much More Aggressive Tightening Cycle Than At The Start Of The Year Following last week’s sharp post-FOMC rally…