Investors in Europe and the American West are already starting to think about the implications of the 2024 election, given that sticky inflation and tighter monetary policy keep the risk of recession elevated.
The Chilean economy is entering a recession. Inflation will drop rapidly and the central bank will cut rates meaningfully in H2 2023. We continue to recommend a structural overweight across Chilean risk assets on the basis of falling…
Rather than teetering into recession, global growth has firmed since the start of the year. While we still expect inflation to decline, the risk that central banks will need to lift rates more than discounted has increased. Long-term…
In this Special Report, BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Fixed Income Strategy teams argue that as the lagged impact of higher interest rates hits the Canadian economy, what will initially appear as a potential hard landing…
Great Power Rivalry is taking another leg up as Russia and China further align their geopolitical interests. Investors should stay long USD-CNY, favor defensives over cyclicals, and markets like North America and DM Europe that have…
Thai stocks and currency will weaken over the short term. And yet EM equity portfolios should overweight Thailand as tourism revivals will rejuvenate this economy.
Biden’s State of the Union address will mostly be blocked by a gridlocked Congress. The one point of agreement, big spending, spells trouble over the long run, even if a technical default is avoided this fall.
The Fed is betting that the usual non-linearity of unemployment is different this time, but so far, there is nothing to suggest that it is different. We discuss the key signposts to watch out for, plus the implications for interest…