The CCP is poised to roll out a re-boot of China’s economy that will focus on its comparative advantage in the processing of base metals – particularly copper – and the export of metals-intensive products like EVs. The re-boot will…

The debt ceiling game’s endpoint will avoid default only if it implies economic pain. For the Republicans, the best strategy is not to lift the debt ceiling unless the Democrats cut spending a lot, or unless the economy starts to…

Indian EPS growth is set for major disappointments vis-à-vis the lofty expectations. Weak domestic demand amid tight fiscal and monetary policy entails more downside in stock prices. Stay underweight.

Macro and geopolitical risks may spoil the narrow window for a stock market rally before recessionary trends rise to the fore.

Special Report

Cyclically-speaking, the risk of global indebtedness does not appear to be acute. There are several pockets of sizeable private sector debt risk, and it is possible that the next US/global recession will cause a more pronounced economic…

In Section I, we discuss why the rally in stock prices over the past month reflects the soft-landing view, and why that is not a likely economic outcome. US inflation is slowing, but target inflation remains elusive. Meanwhile,…

Special Report

Government financing vehicles (LGFVs) are a key component of China’s credit system. LGFV bonds make up a 40% share of the onshore corporate bond market, and loans to LGFVs make up 20% of total loans. LGFV debt-servicing capacity is…

Special Report

This Special Report discusses why there is a non-negligible risk that the US Congress will not reach a timely agreement to lift the debt ceiling this summer. It also discusses what will happen in bond markets in the lead up to the…

We are increasing our gold price target to $2,200/oz, given the increasing risk of fiscal dominance in the US, rising geopolitical risk, the return of trading blocs and currency debasement risk. These risks also will increase…