Turkey’s macro policy stance can hardly be called orthodox. And yet, corporate profit margins will contract meaningfully this year. The lira can also fall massively even if inflation eases from the extremely high levels – just as it…
Chinese economic data for the first two months of the year were mixed. On the one hand, industrial production and fixed asset investment growth came in above consensus estimates, accelerating to 7.0% y/y (vs. expectations of 5.2…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, a very substantial PSL financing scheme for housing, a large LG and LGFV debt swap, and considerable fiscal transfers to households—or a combination…
Our Emerging Markets Strategy team posits that the South African economy is heading into a recession later this year. The South African government refrained from announcing any stimulus measures in its recent budget proposals.…
Democrats are still slightly favored for reelection as the incumbent party is presiding over a growing economy. However, Biden’s strong showing in the primary election is not lifting his popular approval yet, and that is a worrying…
A market-cap weighted index of CE3 economies (Poland, Hungary and Czechia) returned a whopping 64% in common currency terms since its 2022 low. Polish and Hungarian equities led the rally, advancing by a respective 86% and 78% in…
In the past couple of years, Mexico has been among the favorite markets for investors within the EM space. As our Emerging Markets Strategy team argued in a recent report, the cyclical and structural outlook for Mexican risk…
China’s NBS PMI release indicates that the Chinese growth is stabilizing at a low level. The composite PMI came in at 50.9 – unchanged from January. The stabilization was led by the non-manufacturing sector though…
