Gold seems to be leading global share prices. Gold prices have rolled over since March 10. Hence, odds are that the U.S. dollar is about to bottom, and that global and EM stocks, as well as commodities prices, are about to relapse.…

The ultimate driver of bank profitability is loan growth. A brighter economic backdrop in the U.S. compared with both the euro area and Japan paints a rosier picture for relative credit growth opportunities (third panel). Already, bank…

Bank stocks comprise the bulk of financials indexes' market cap weights in the G3 (U.S., Euro Area and Japan). Thus, bank profit growth should largely define each region's financials sector earnings path, and by extension,…

While relative financials stock returns tend to be highly correlated across regions, especially in the developed world (top panel), extremely divergent monetary policy developments and operating metrics suggest that these long-standing…

Chinese GDP growth may have picked up slightly in the first quarter, and growth numbers will likely continue to exceed expectations in the coming months. The market is overly bearish on China's earnings outlook, and may be on the…

Special Report

The Fed is unlikely to derail the housing recovery. In this report we detail our structurally bullish U.S. housing view and how to profit from it.

There are a number of warning signs that the global and EM equity bounce is unsustainable. The latest episode of housing recovery in China will prove temporary due to still-large imbalances. Overweight Indian stocks: the credit cycle…

Both the demand for and availability of capital favors consumers over businesses, on the margin. The latest Fed senior loan officer survey showed that banks are tightening standards on C&I loans, the most rapidly growing component…

Consumer finance stocks have been among the worst financial sector performers in the last six months creating a negative divergence with bullish macro drivers. For instance, relative performance has far undershot the level implied by…

The Fed's recent dovishness represents an acknowledgement of the feedback loop between Fed policy and financial conditions. Expect Fed hawkishness to ramp back up prior to the next rate hike, likely in June.