With the broad market poking above the top end of its long-term trading range, investors may be on the lookout for sectors and groups that will benefit from improving market sentiment. While the financial sector has been pounded in the…
Our Cyclical Indicator Update reveals that a defensive portfolio strategy remains the best bet to navigate the crosscurrents of stagnant profit/economic growth yet abundant global liquidity.
A renewed flare-up in euro area banking sector stress will have ramifications for U.S. bank stocks, despite little direct geographic exposure. The chart shows that risk premiums for U.S bank stocks have been tightly correlated with…
We test three channels of contagion from the Brexit shock: political, banking system, and economic.
Housing activity should accelerate in the back half of the year given the drop in Treasury yields. Buy home improvement retailers and add to long homebuilding positions.
Financial stocks around the world have plunged, with U.S. relative performance on the cusp of setting new cyclical relative performance lows. While the sector is well capitalized and has low balance sheet risk, our negative stance is…
Post-Brexit uncertainty will continue for some time. But we were already cautiously positioned, and would not go any more defensive.
The financials sector led the recent pullback in the broad market. Rather than view this as a buying opportunity, it is symptomatic of the relentless plunge in global bond yields and an increasing scarcity of financial sector pricing…
The sinking global credit impulse warns that reflation has not overwhelmed deflationary forces. Financials will continue to suffer, while utilities and retail drug stores will benefit.