A number of large investment banks have reported better-than-expected profit results, courtesy of a flurry of trading activity. While any profit windfall is always a plus, the nature of these gains is fleeting and unlikely to break…
Highlights When interest rates are ultra-low, central banks have no margin for policy error. A small loosening or tightening has the potential to produce either a stall or catastrophic turbulence. The analogy is flying a plane at high…
Highlights EM tech stocks are overbought while banks are fundamentally vulnerable due to bad-loan overhang. EM stocks have never decoupled from the U.S. dollar and commodities prices. There has been no recovery in EM corporate…
When earnings growth negatively diverges from GDP growth, the gap rarely closes via a rebound in profit growth. The most notable feature of prior episodes is weak corporate pricing power and the current period is no different; an…
Deutsche Bank's woes highlight a much wider malaise within European banks: under-capitalisation and under-profitability. We explain why getting the banks right is crucial to a successful investment strategy in equity, bond and…
U.S. bank stocks have been joined at the hip with the expected 12-month change in the Fed funds rate since 2014, based on the notion that a rate hike will boost net interest margins. However, even if the Fed hikes rates, that may do…
It's hard to make a case for attractive returns from any asset class over the next year. We dial down risk a bit but ending our overweight on junk bonds. Investors should pick up yield where they can but without taking excessive risk…