Highlights Portfolio Strategy Synchronized global capex growth and higher interest rates are two key themes that will continue to dominate this year. Three high-conviction calls are levered to the former theme and two to the latter. A…

Highlights The trajectory of EM bank profits and share prices will be critical to sustain the EM equity rally. Rising U.S. bond yields will push up EM local bond yields. This, along with poor quality of banks' earnings, will…

Highlights The German 10-year bund yield rising to 1%, or the U.S. 10-year T-bond yield rising to 3% would be a trigger to downgrade equities and upgrade bonds... ...especially as the blue sky expectations for global growth in H1 2018…

Highlights The Beige Book released on January 17 keeps the Fed on track to raise rates at least three times this year and highlights the impact of the tax bill on the economy. BCA's Big 5 Bank Lending Beige Book highlights several…

Special Report

Highlights We are upgrading our allocation to Indian stocks from neutral to overweight within EM equity portfolios. India's public banks are much further along in their necessary adjustment process, and the credit cycle downturn…

America's banks appear to have finished off 2017 with stellar core earnings as some of the largest lenders, including JPM, WFC and C, have all reported strengthening net interest income and loan growth while delivering EPS ahead…

Special Report

Equities have melted up in recent weeks, celebrating the tax bill passage, synchronized upswing in global economic data, still quiescent inflation and near vanishing tail risk. On July 10th when we penned the "SPX 3,000?" report…

Fed data released this week showed consumer credit growth surging at close to its fastest pace since the turn of the century, driven in large part by exceptional growth in revolving consumer credit (second panel). The…

Special Report

Highlights The financial system / banks cannot and do not lend out or intermediate national or households "savings". In any economy, new money/new purchasing power is originated by commercial banks "out of thin air…

Overweight Anecdotal evidence of a strong recovery in holiday shopping, not least of which is Amazon's guidance of 28-38% growth in the December quarter, should see retailers in festive moods. However, with online sales set to…