Last week, the yield curve steepened after the Fed signaled a rate cut is coming in July. While the yield curve has put in higher lows in the past seven months, relative bank performance has been facing stiff resistance and has…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Melting inflation expectations, widening relative indebtedness, expensive adjusted relative valuations, high odds of a further drop in relative profit margins and the high-octane small cap status all…
Underweight Stocks in the S&P insurance index have been mostly treading water since their collapse at the beginning of 2018, a result of reasonably solid premium growth and low catastrophe losses offsetting slowing growth in house…
Highlights In Indonesia, investors are ignoring the weakness in global growth, which is an important driver of the country’s financial markets. The Indonesian currency, equities and local currency bonds all remain vulnerable. We…
Highlights The U.S. dollar will ultimately reach fresh cycle highs, but not before going through a weak phase starting this summer that could last 12 months. We closed our long DXY trade for a carry-adjusted return of 16.4% last week…
Highlights The recent dovish shift in tone from central banks around the world is here to stay this year, providing support for global growth. As a result, stock prices will benefit from a combination of easy policy and rebounding…