Financials

Highlights Duration: Bond yields will stay low until the daily number of new COVID-19 cases falls to zero, at which point a sell-off is likely. We therefore recommend maintaining below-benchmark portfolio duration on a 6-12 month horizon. Rising odds of a…

Highlights An analysis on Turkey is available on page 10. In the short term, EM share prices will likely continue searching for a direction as visibility is extremely low. Beyond the near term, an appropriate strategy for EM equity investors is buying…

Highlights The coronavirus is a real threat for the global economy and financial markets: We expect that the epidemic will be contained before it takes too much of a bite out of global output, but it has become the biggest market wild card. We are…

Highlights Malaysian businesses and households have been deleveraging and the economy risks entering a debt deflation spiral. This macro-backdrop is bond bullish. EM fixed income-dedicated investors should keep an overweight position in both local…

Stick With Capital Markets…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy There are high odds that China’s real GDP deceleration will continue for the next decade, casting a shadow over the profit prospects of the S&P 1500 metals & mining index. A structural below benchmark allocation is…

Highlights Commercial rents have fallen in real terms, revealing that the commercial property price rally has been fueled exclusively by low rates. Limited upside for rents and an upward direction for future rates are two significant headwinds. However,…

Highlights An analysis on India is available on page 12. There is extreme complacency in global financial markets. With currency markets’ implied volatility at a record low, we recommend going long EM currency volatility. The latter will rise in the…