Highlights Portfolio Strategy The rising shadow fed funds rate and related flattening of the yield curve, eerie similarities with the 2009/10 episode, overbought technicals, and extended sector breadth, all signal that financials are…

Special Report

Highlights The selloff in crypto-currencies on May 19 may be overblown but the risk of government intervention is a rising headwind for this asset class. While environmental concerns are a threat to Bitcoin, the entire crypto-currency…

Special Report

In the previous Tinkering With Inflation Special Report, we outlined our structural view for US inflation, namely that over the next 10 years inflation will surprise to the upside largely driven by politicians re-discovering the magic of…

Special Report

Highlights EM banks will underperform their DM peers in the next six months due to worsening relative NPL dynamics and shrinking net interest margins. EM banks will either continue experiencing rising NPLs and moribund loan demand due…

  One week following the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine efficacy news, we boosted the S&P financials sector to overweight and since then financials have bested the SPX by 13%, an impressive run. However, the euphoria surrounding…

Feature The selloff in Chinese stocks since mid-February reflects a rollover in earnings growth and multiples. Lofty valuations in Chinese equities driven by last year’s massive stimulus means that stock prices are vulnerable to any…

  The BCA Research Global Asset Allocation (GAA) Forum will take place online on May 18th. We have put together a great lineup of speakers to discuss issues of importance to CIOs and asset allocators. These include the latest thinking…

Highlights Extremely accommodative fiscal policy and a rapid pace of vaccination puts the US on track to close its output gap by the end of the year. The situation is different in Europe, and the euro area economy will likely continue…

Highlights Fiscal stimulus is no longer a free lunch. US mortgage applications are down by 20 percent since the start of February. With rising bond yields now starting to choke private sector borrowing, bond yields are nearing an…

While the Fed’s dots dovishly surprised, the FOMC’s output and inflation projections were on the hawkish side. Adding the committee’s core PCE price inflation estimate for 2021 to their real GDP forecast results in a…