Global Investment Strategy predicted the surge of inflation in 2021/22 and the immaculate disinflation of 2023. Now their unique framework is predicting a recession in the second half of 2024.
The latest Bank of England/Ipsos quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey shows the public revised down its near-term inflation outlook. Respondents now believe inflation will fall to 3.3% in the year ahead – down from 3.6% in…
Retail sales volumes grew on a sequential basis for the first time in three months in October, rising by 0.1% m/m following an upwardly revised 0.1% m/m decline. On an annual basis, the pace of decline slowed from -2.9% y/y to -1…
German factory orders sent a disappointing signal on Wednesday. New orders at German factories unexpectedly declined by 3.7% m/m in October, disappointing expectations of a 0.2% m/m rise following two consecutive months of…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European corporate spreads will widen over the coming six months before an attractive buying opportunity emerges in the second half of 2024. 2024 will…
The Sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone continues to send a marginally positive signal. Its 1.8-point increase to -16.8 in December brings it to its highest level since May, albeit below expectations of a slightly more…
The recent uptick in European economic data will not last beyond the next six months. How will European corporate credit perform in this context?
Inflation won’t fall fast enough for the Fed to cut rates preemptively before recession arrives. The risk/rewards balance is unfavorable for risk assets. Stay overweight bonds versus equities.
Euro Area stocks have had a strong 2023, rising by 18.8% year-to-date, only slightly behind the 19.1% gain captured by US equities, and outperforming the ACWI’s 14.3% increase. In particular, the Italian index’s 35…
Recent Euro Area economic data have been sending a less pessimistic signal. Wednesday’s releases are in line with this trend. The European Commission’s confidence indicator shows a mild improvement in economic…