Euro
EUR/USD is in a multi-year bull market. A short-term pause is likely, but the longer-term trend remains higher toward 1.25, and eventually 1.40.
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.
We will abandon our recession call if US economic data show clear signs of stabilization over the summer months. For now, that has not happened. Maintain a modest underweight to stocks but look to get more defensive if MacroQuant’s equity z-score falls below -1.
The US economy is not in recession, but is suffering from a post-pandemic stimulus hangover. The cure: lower interest rates. We expect the Fed to start lowering rates, which will benefit both equities and bonds. We upgrade stocks to neutral and downgrade cash to underweight. We also upgrade duration to overweight. The US dollar will continue to weaken, so favour Europe and China within equities.
In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions: 1. Should you buy or sell the USD over a three-to-six month period from the pure lens of our proven technical indicators and 2. What are the best tactical cross trades among currencies.
The ECB is changing its tone, but don’t call it a pivot. Slower cuts, sticky disinflation, and a soft growth patch shift the opportunity set. We break down the tactical bond trades and why EUR/USD dips are still for buying.
Five questions, five answers from the road. We unpack what Europe’s biggest investors are worried about right now, from trade‑war whiplash to bund‑versus‑Treasury positioning; and where the real opportunities still lie.
The easing bias remains, but not all central banks are equal. This Central Bank Monitor update reveals who is ready to cut more and who is still pretending not to.