Strategy Report

Too Early To Sound The All Clear

10 Jul 2025

by Peter Berezin, Chief Strategist

We will abandon our recession call if US economic data show clear signs of stabilization over the summer months. For now, that has not happened. Maintain a modest underweight to stocks but look to get more defensive if MacroQuant’s equity z-score falls below -1.

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Contents

Executive Summary
June Payrolls: Weaker Under The Surface
Fade the JOLTS
Consumption on the Back Foot
Housing Blues
Tracking the “Big Six”
The First Rule of the Taco Trade Is that You Don’t Tell Trump About the Taco Trade
Still the Bigliest Tariffs Since the 1930s
Americans Are Shouldering the Tariff Burden
Tariffs and the Rest of the Global Economy
Fiscal Stimulus to the Rescue? Don’t Count on It
Investment Implications