Equities
The economy is slowing, but not collapsing, and monetary easing is imminent — a backdrop that will benefit equities. We remain strategically bullish, with a close eye on GenAI and resilient earnings, even amid numerous risks. However, we are tactically cautious, as seasonality, elevated valuations, and stretched technicals present near-term headwinds.
The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio outperformed its benchmark through August, returning 5.39%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned 3.75%. On a trailing three-month basis, the USHQ portfolio’s performance was weaker than the benchmark, but the gap narrowed, with USHQ underperforming by approximately 450bps.
The resilience of US non-tech companies' profitability has not been driven by top-line growth but by falling costs, which safeguarded profit margins. Presently, risks in US stocks outweigh the potential rewards – margin sustainability is uncertain while equity valuations are very stretched.
MacroQuant sees downside risks to stocks over a long-term horizon but is not yet saying that we are at imminent risk of an equity bear market.
Commercial indices’ limitations have made Value a fertile ground for stock pickers. Our Composite Value model has shown promise in circumventing these flaws and capturing alpha.
