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Equities

ISM Manufacturing PMI Contracts Anew
After briefly breaking a 16-month contraction streak, the ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped back below the 50.0 boom-bust line in April. It decreased from 50.3 to 49.2, disappointing expectations of 50.0. Notably, measures of domestic and foreign demand both…
Daily Insights
US Consumer Confidence Plunges On Perceived Labor Market Deterioration
The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence largely disappointed in April. 3.9- and 7.6-point decreases in the Present Situation and Expectations subcomponents, respectively, drove the overall index to a 22-month low of 97.0 in April. This third…
Daily Insights
MacroQuant Is Now Bearish On US Equities
In its latest report, BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service provides an update on its MacroQuant model. The overall equity score declined in April, finishing the month at the 29th percentile, which is enough to prompt the model to assign US…
Daily Insights
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Europe Exorcises Its Inflation, The US Stays Haunted

Wild hopes for US rate cuts got shattered, exactly as we predicted. But given the different incentives that the Fed and ECB now face, the relative pricing between the Fed and the ECB could widen further in the coming months. We discuss the implications for rates, the dollar, and the relative positioning in US versus European equities.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Sticky Inflation, Faltering Growth

Central banks are in a dilemma whether to prioritize supporting growth or bringing inflation back to target. This is unlikely to end well. Investors should be defensively positioned.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
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MacroQuant Model Update: MacroQuant Turns Bearish On Stocks

MacroQuant downgraded equities from neutral to underweight on a 1-to-3 month horizon. The model suggests increasing exposure to cash.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Mixed Messages From Chinese PMIs
The Chinese NBS non-manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2, below the previous month’s number of 53 and below expectations of 52.2. Moreover, the NBS manufacturing PMI also decreased to (a better-than-expected) 50.4 in April from 50.8 in March. Meanwhile, the…
Daily Insights
Domestic And Global Headwinds Weigh On Chinese Profits
Chinese industrial profit growth slowed in the first three months of the year to 4.3% YTD y/y, from 10.2% y/y in January and February. The March slowdown is meaningful since industrial profits outright contracted by 3.5% relative to March 2023. Weak…
Daily Insights
German Inflation Continues To Show Some Strength
A few preliminary measures of German inflation for April were released on Monday. The month-on-month headline inflation measure came in at 0.5% an increase from last month’s reading of 0.4% but below expectations of 0.6%. Meanwhile the year-on-year version…
Daily Insights
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Peak Divergence

Investors anticipate a record growth gap between the US and the Eurozone in 2024. Does this skewed expectation create market opportunities?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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