MacroQuant downgraded equities from neutral to underweight on a 1-to-3 month horizon. The model suggests increasing exposure to cash.
The Chinese NBS non-manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2, below the previous month’s number of 53 and below expectations of 52.2. Moreover, the NBS manufacturing PMI also decreased to (a better-than-expected) 50.4 in April…
A few preliminary measures of German inflation for April were released on Monday. The month-on-month headline inflation measure came in at 0.5% an increase from last month’s reading of 0.4% but below expectations of 0.6%.…
Chinese industrial profit growth slowed in the first three months of the year to 4.3% YTD y/y, from 10.2% y/y in January and February. The March slowdown is meaningful since industrial profits outright contracted by 3.5% relative…
Investors anticipate a record growth gap between the US and the Eurozone in 2024. Does this skewed expectation create market opportunities?
The latest edition of our Big Bank Beige Book suggests the expansion remains intact, though weakness in C’s private-label credit card portfolio could be a harbinger of distress among lower-income consumers. We remain tactically…
2023 was an awful year for Chinese equities. Though last year, the MSCI China Investable index declined by over 10% even as global equities rallied by over 20%. The pain extended into January of this year, with Chinese stocks…
Equity markets reacted negatively to the preliminary Q1 US GDP on Thursday, with the S&P 500 shedding 0.5%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 bps in response to the stronger-than-expected core PCE inflation print…
The resilience of the US economy has led economists to consistently revise up their consensus real GDP growth forecast for 2024, which now stands at 2.4%, up from 0.6% in July 2023. Conversely, the 2024 consensus Eurozone growth…
Results of Germany’s IFO business climate survey for April sent a positive message on Tuesday. The overall Business Climate Index increased from 87.9 to 89.4, beating expectations of 88.9. Assessments of both the current…