According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Indian Prime Minister Modi is on track to be reelected for his third term, with the latest polls in April averaging 385 seats for the National Democratic Alliance,…
Canadian equities have lagged their US counterparts for over a decade. Sector composition largely explains this underperformance. Banks and natural resources stocks are overrepresented in the TSX while the US stock market is…
Investor and business sentiment continues to improve in the Eurozone. The ZEW Expectations series for the Eurozone (+3.1 to 47 in May) and Germany (+4.2 to 47.1, above expectations) strengthened to 27-month highs. Moreover, the…
On the surface, the Tuesday release of the NFIB Small Business Survey indicated resilience among small businesses. The headline index appreciated to 89.7 from 88.5, upending expectations of a moderation to 88.2. However,…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Mexico’s presidential election on June 2 is likely to produce policy continuity, but a big win for the ruling party would be market-negative, at least…
Emergency pandemic policies elongated the lag between Fed rate hikes and an observable slowdown in the economy. Notably, fiscal transfers and constrained consumption options endowed households with more than $2 trillion of…
The Bank of Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey – a gauge of sentiment among business owners – disappointed in April. The Current Conditions and the Outlook indices deteriorated from 49.8 to 47.4 (20-month low) and…
Chinese aggregate financing, a broad measure of credit, declined on a YTD basis, from CNY 12.9tr to CNY 12.7tr in April, disappointing expectations that it would grow to CNY 13.9tr. Moreover, new loan growth missed expectations (…
We marked the first X on our Equity Downgrade Checklist and the latest JOLTS, Employment Situation and SLOOS releases brought us closer to ticking some others. We remain tactically neutral on equities but expect that we will…