Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.
Outside of the US, forward earnings have grown at an underwhelming pace this year. Forward earnings for MSCI US have expanded by 7.3% in 2024YTD while MSCI EMU has remained flat and MSCI Japan has contracted by 4.9%. Against this…
Way back in the 1970s and 1980s, before investment returns were assessed in relation to benchmarks and return of capital had the upper hand over return on capital, BCA researchers were invited to consider the following thought…
Investors greeted June’s mild CPI report with relief. 10-year Treasury yields declined a dozen basis points in the ensuing four sessions (with yesterday’s action fully reversing Monday’s backup on the increased…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the threat to European equities stems from growth, not French politics. After the dissolution of the French parliament on June 9th, investors sold…
The real threat to European equities is growth, not political risk. How low will Eurozone earnings fall during the coming recession and how much will equities decline in response?
Subdued demand for credit among Chinese private-sector businesses and households persisted through June. The stock of outstanding bank loans grew by 8.3% year-on-year, marking the slowest pace since records began in 2003.…
Second quarter earnings season began for US public companies on Friday as JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) reported their results before the open. (BAC, the other commercial bank SIFI (systemically important…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, extremely disappointing corporate profit growth has been the main reason for EM's poor equity performance in absolute terms and massive underperformance…
South African stocks, domestic bonds, and currency have all rallied since BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy team upgraded South African assets last month following the formation of the new national unity government. The rally…