We recently pointed to the UK Budget announcement as a pivotal event for UK assets. Following an initially positive reception, the market has turned and priced in further fiscal premia in UK assets, with both gilts and the pound…
As US consumers remain one of the few engines of global growth, our US Investment Strategy colleagues took a deep dive on consumer trends, augmented with comments from US banks’ earnings calls. Middle-aged consumers have…
Flash Q3 GDP estimates for the Euro Area beat expectations, accelerating to 0.4% quarterly growth from 0.2% last quarter. The momentum was spread across major countries, except for Italy. Meanwhile, the European Commission’…
Advanced Q3 GDP for the US met expectations, showing 2.8% quarterly annualized growth and a small deceleration from 3.0% in Q2. Importantly, growth remains above trend. The report was strong across the board except for housing.…
The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.
Our US Political Strategy colleagues now see 55% odds of a Trump victory, with odds of a Republican sweep at 47%. As odds of a contested election are rising, they built on their 2020 work to provide answers for next week’s…
While moving in the right direction, China’s latest stimulus measures are falling short of the mark to reflate the economy. The latest rumors extend this trend. News agencies reported discussions of a CNY 10 trillion…
Germany’s problems are well known: Demographics, Chinese competition, underinvestment, energy dependence, and constrained fiscal policy. Our European Investment Strategy colleagues believe this bad news is priced in…
The main driver of global consumer sentiment in the past few years has been high inflation. Nowhere has this been the case more than in the US, where measures of animal spirits were depressed despite a roaring economy. Today,…