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Equities

ZEW expectations jumped in May, but underlying macro fragility supports a cautious stance on eurozone assets. The ZEW expectations index for the euro area rose to 35.3 from 11.6, with Germany also beating expectations. The current situation component improved…
US May retail sales missed expectations, reinforcing our defensive allocation stance. Headline sales fell 0.9% m/m from a downwardly revised -0.1%. Core sales dropped 0.1%, while the control group rose 0.4%, beating estimates. Auto sales were especially weak…

The EM EPS recovery has been narrow, solely driven by TMT stocks in China, Korea, and Taiwan. EM corporate profits are set to contract in the next six to nine months. Unlike in the past, US dollar weakness will be deflationary, not reflationary, for EM share prices.

Special Report

Switzerland looks pristine, but the near-term risks are mounting. Deflation pressures, overvalued assets, and a highly exposed export sector leave the economy vulnerable to a slowdown. This report explores why the SNB will ease more than markets expect, and how to position across CHF, equities, and bonds.

This week our three screeners explore equity trades in Robotics, European Quality and Technical, and Hong Kong. 

The US labor market appears balanced but at a pivotal point, with further weakness likely to prompt a shift to maximum defensiveness. After running the hottest since the 1960s, the labor market has gradually cooled. That rebalancing sparked a brief growth…
BCA’s China Investment strategists see limited upside for Chinese equities and favor bonds, as trade tensions ease but domestic headwinds persist. This week’s US-China trade talks in London lowered the risk of near-term escalation or new retaliatory tariffs,…
While consumer sentiment is rebounding, sticky inflation expectations and slowing growth warrant staying long duration and steepeners. The preliminary June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index surprised to the upside, rising to 60.5 from 52.2.…
The S&P 500 has breached 6000 and may retest all-time highs, but we would not recommend chasing the rally. Risk assets have shrugged off recession fears, with stress indicators like the VIX, SKEW, and VVIX still subdued, signaling limited demand for…

The London Sino-US trade talks offered hope of de-escalation, but Chinese equities remain under pressure from deflationary headwinds and lack a clear macro catalyst to trend higher.