The outperformance of the S&P 500 relative to the S&P 500 EW index is likely to continue over the next year, supported by stronger earnings growth. However, extreme levels of market concentration will ultimately halt the…
Mexican equity and fixed-income markets will continue outperforming their EM counterparts, regardless of whether global risk assets sell off or not. Also, we recommend a new trade: long Mexican stocks / short the S&P 500.
MacroQuant remains tactically overweight equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is bullish on gold.
Stock market valuations are moving as a near-perfect mirror image of the US real interest rate, meaning that the Fed is underpinning the stock market. But if the market stopped believing in AI-driven profits growth, valuations would…
The odds have risen that we have reached a “Metaverse Moment” – a situation where investors punish AI companies for increasing capex. This warrants greater caution towards AI stocks specifically, and the broader S&P 500 more…
Q3 results were strong but failed to impress investors, and Q4 will likely prove more challenging. Beneath the surface, earnings diverged sharply: Firms catering to affluent consumers maintained solid momentum, while those reliant on…
Many key equity indexes have failed to break above major resistance levels, while risky segments have begun to crack. Altogether, this suggests that a major peak in risk assets has probably been made. Short the MSCI EM stock index…
Indian stocks have further downside in absolute terms as profits disappoint. Their underperformance versus the EM equity benchmark, however, is late, which warrants a shift from underweight to neutral allocation.
This week, our screeners explore opportunities in the Swedish stock market, Canadian gold-exposed and domestic-focused sectors, and ex-tech GenAI names.
The greater risk to the world economy in 2026-27 is not that a recession triggers a market crash, but that a market crash triggers a recession. This is because a market crash will destroy the wealth that is funding the crucial…